Five years ago, prior to the Crew Dragon Demo-2 mission, NASA calculated the loss-of-crew (LOC) probability for the test flight at approximately 1-in-276. Since then, 15 crewed missions have successfully flown without any LOC events, providing to refine the LOC probability using Bayesian updating. Considering that this mission is a short 3.5-day free-flyer, it is reasonable to optimistically estimate the LOC probability as being lower than that of an ISS mission. While I don’t have access to sufficient data for a precise calculation, an informed estimate suggests the LOC probability is likely in the range of 1-in-1000 to 1-in-2000. Some may be concerned about radiation exposure in a polar orbit. Data suggests that under normal conditions, the radiation dose for this mission would not be significantly higher than for a 51.6-degree inclination mission, with an estimated total dose of up to 5 mSv for the entire duration. However, polar orbits are more sensitive to solar events, and an unlucky encounter with a solar storm could increase the dose to as much as 50 mSv in 90-degree inclination. A 50 mSv short-term radiation exposure could translate into a 2.5% increase in lifetime cancer risk, which further corresponds to an additional 1% increase in mortality risk. These significant solar events are estimated to occur roughly once every 10 years. Unfortunately, the probability of encountering one is higher in 2025 than it is in other years, with an estimated likelihood of 1-in-250 during this mission. Based on above calculations, radiation exposure likely accounts for less than 10% of the total LOC probability in this mission. It is important to note that the above analysis represents only my personal speculation and is not associated with SpaceX. Fram2 will be protected from the space environment through a combination of vehicle and mission design, and operations including mission duration and orbit control. Like all previous SpaceX human spaceflight missions, the overall radiation dosage for the crew will be measured throughout the mission to ensure safe levels of exposure.