The Kobeissi Letter|Jan 18, 2025 21:18
Is the US housing market overvalued?
Share prices of single-family landlords, Invitation Homes, INVH, and American Homes 4 Rent, AMH, are trading at 35% and 20% discounts to their net asset values.
By comparison, in March 2022 when the Fed began rate hikes, INVH was trading at a record 25% premium.
To put this differently, Invitation Homes's share price now implies that average home prices should be ~105,000 lower.
The housing market is disconnected from reality.
Something needs to give.
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