Liquidity is starting to rebound, and it should officially reach the debt ceiling this week. We have previously discussed that during the window period before reaching a new debt ceiling agreement, the Ministry of Finance can only issue bonds on a rolling basis (with some debts returning to below the ceiling when they mature during the window period), but cannot issue excessive bonds. These short-term bonds can absorb overnight reverse repurchase funds, and at the same time, the TGA account of the Ministry of Finance begins to make large-scale expenditures, resulting in the overall liquidity recovery during the window period. The latest data shows that the net liquidity of the US dollar has rebounded to 6.01 trillion US dollars, and the reserve size of banks has rebounded to 3.34 trillion US dollars. These two figures have far exceeded the level of the fourth quarter of 2024, and overnight reverse repo has rapidly decreased by about 110 billion US dollars, both of which are good signals. As for how long is the window period between this time? The last time the debt ceiling was reached was in January 2023, and a new debt ceiling agreement was reached at the end of May 2023, which lasted for five months. This time the Republican Party controls both houses of Congress, the window of time should be shorter than the last time. But at the hearing last night of the new treasury secretary Besant, he also hoped to cancel the debt ceiling. At the end of 24, Trump's intention to cancel the debt ceiling was rejected by more than 30 Republicans. After that, Trump and Besant want to continue to cancel the debt ceiling, so there will be games within the Republican Party. A few days ago, Speaker of the House Johnson mentioned his expectation of reaching a new budget bill by the end of February, which can also serve as a reference. Regarding the relationship between debt ceiling and liquidity, you can refer to the previous tweet: https://(((x.com)))/qinbafrank/status/1875357141265232023? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A https://(((x.com)))/qinbafrank/status/1877149655240499428? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A The relationship between pancake and US dollar liquidity can be seen as follows: https://(((x.com)))/qinbafrank/status/1831275869869892035? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A