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Haotian | CryptoInsight|Jan 17, 2025 08:08
Share the "slow investment" thinking logic of three AI agent tracks:
1) The overall track of AI agents is still in an extremely early and immature stage, and a large number of projects will emerge in the short term. At the same time, some mixed projects will inevitably decline because most projects are exploring the feasibility of technical architecture and business models. There are many uncertain factors that will ultimately determine which projects can truly emerge.
Compared to the DeFi track, the current AI agents are still in the chaotic and irregular stage of 2019. DeFi has reached the DeFi Summer of 2020, seemingly benefiting from the governance token stimulation of Compound, but in essence, the DeFi track has already implemented a sustainable business model of "lending+liquidity mining", which can be overlaid with other more diverse and combinatorial new gameplay.
Obviously, AI agents have not found a mature commercial path that can run smoothly. Although the demand side for creating AI agents has been activated, the path for applying AI agents is still unclear. Only one @ aixbt_agent has shown promising business prospects for composability, but it is still being explored;
2) The pursuit of new products by AI agents is not worth it and there is no need for Fomo. Although when the overall market momentum is insufficient, there will always be projects worth hundreds of millions of yuan in "AliExpress", and many young players are worried about missing out and catching up with them. However, the AliExpress projects such as Swarms, HYPER, Pippin, AIOS, etc. all prove one point. Good projects, as long as they understand and meet investment standards, do not lack opportunities to get on board.
Speedy projects will ferment on social channels for a period of time, and the underlying chip structure has great "unnaturalness". Whether it is the short-term PVP Fomo of individual investors, or the manipulation of conspiracy groups or wild villages, such targets are destined to fluctuate significantly in the short term. For ordinary retail investors, following up with research and analysis after being attracted by a pullback, the risk of getting on the market after a significant correction is much lower.
Although AI agents have already embarked on the value investment track of AI Infra, most of the speculative investors and retail investors in the market are still following the PVP approach in their investments. Therefore, unless you have absolute confidence and confidence in selling, do not join the crowd during Fomo. Some projects with incomplete fundamentals have been elevated to extremely high market values, and it remains to be seen whether the large funds behind them can withstand loneliness;
3) The adoption of MEME based issuance for most coins in the AI agent field is a progress, but prematurely dispersing chips and engaging in "community co construction" not only requires controlling fundraising in fluctuations, but also requires a continuous build cycle to stabilize the market. Especially for projects with a focus on technical logic architecture, there are AI Agent monolithic application delivery experiences, framework and standard implementation technology details disclosed in white papers, and ongoing large-scale project resource integration and cooperation.
In short, the launch of key milestones is necessary to demonstrate the great potential for development and long-term value of the project. The key is that most early-stage MEME issuances of technology projects have an inherent intention of financing. If the financing is in place but cannot gradually release build signals and positive news, it is tantamount to the collapse of the project's fundamentals. Similarly, it remains to be seen how long high market value can be sustained.
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In fact, we need to tell everyone to learn the thinking logic of "slow investment" on the eve of the development of a "fast-paced" AI agent.
Only by slowing down can we avoid the chips being too scattered, avoid being locked in liquidity by non value projects, and truly discover valuable and long-term high-value projects with predictable growth rates through investment research.
Note: In order to fulfill the dream of having 1000 loyal fans and connect with more friends, I have launched a paid subscription feature for the Substack column on the Twitter homepage. I will periodically provide paid members with AMA open classes, hot topic project discussion and analysis "private sharing meetings", Alpha communication groups, and more. Interested friends can subscribe to support it. Thank you all!
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