1. Market Observation

Keywords: ALPACA, MIKAMI, BTC

The May Day holiday is approaching, and the US will release its Q1 2025 GDP data tonight, which will be an important assessment of the economic situation during Trump's early presidency. Morgan Stanley has lowered its Q1 GDP forecast from zero growth to a year-on-year decline of 1.4%, Goldman Sachs from -0.2% to -0.8%, and JPMorgan has adjusted it to -1.75%. The surge in corporate imports due to the buying spree triggered by Trump's tariff threats has led to an expanded trade deficit. Analysts believe that the stockpiling before tariffs has distorted economic data, and the actual damage may be exaggerated. Additionally, the US non-farm employment data will be released on May 2, becoming another market focus. Economists warn that the tariff war initiated by the Trump administration could lead to severe turmoil in the US labor market, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June. Apollo's chief economist Slok predicts that the US labor market may significantly weaken in the coming months. The market generally believes that the tariff dispute may exacerbate inflation, increase unemployment, and even trigger an economic recession.

Bitcoin has been fluctuating around $94,000 to $95,000 for a week, regaining the short-term holder cost basis level (approximately $92,900). Currently, most institutions are optimistic about Bitcoin, with Standard Chartered's global digital asset research head Geoffrey Kendrick predicting that Bitcoin could reach an all-time high of about $120,000 in Q2. Bernstein analysts believe it is a buying opportunity and maintain a year-end target price of $200,000, predicting Bitcoin will reach $500,000 by the end of 2029 and $1,000,000 by the end of 2033. This optimistic sentiment resonates with MicroStrategy's significant purchase of $1.42 billion last week—acquiring 15,355 Bitcoins at an average price of $92,737. Additionally, recent Japanese fashion brand ANAP, US real estate company Cardone Capital, and Brazil's largest commercial bank Itaú have also joined the ranks of Bitcoin reserves. Notably, Trump's "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve" executive order will reach a critical point on May 5. QCP Capital believes that this capital inflow led by traditional financial institutions makes this market cycle more sustainable than previous ones.

Binance's recently launched Alpha points system has become a new battleground for airdrop hunters, but the speed of new project launches is increasing, and the difficulty of earning points is gradually rising. Recent projects like Sign, MilkyWay, Haedal Protocol, and B² Network have players exclaiming, "It's getting harder." The market jokingly claims that there must be a high-level advisor behind Binance's actions. Meanwhile, ALPACA is set to perform a "death struggle" before being delisted from Binance on May 2, with price crashes and surges becoming the norm, resulting in nearly $40 million in liquidations within 24 hours. After the BONK project team launched Letsbonk.Fun, NFT whale dingaling's upcoming boop.fun platform attempts to continue community enthusiasm with the promise of "airdrops at launch." Japanese adult film star Yua Mikami has launched an NFT and is now issuing the meme coin MIKAMI, but has made it clear that it is not aimed at the Japanese market. Looking back, similar projects involving adult film stars have often ended in failure, and the market remains cautious about their prospects.

2. Key Data (as of April 30, 12:00 HKT)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)

• Bitcoin: $95,039.82 (YTD +1.56%), daily spot trading volume $24.702 billion

• Ethereum: $1,808.70 (YTD -45.91%), daily spot trading volume $13.769 billion

• Fear and Greed Index: 56 (Neutral)

• Average GAS: BTC 2.25 sat/vB, ETH 0.35 Gwei

• Market Share: BTC 63.5%, ETH 7.3%

• Upbit 24-hour Trading Volume Ranking: PUNDIX, SIGN, XRP, SAFE, DRIFT

• 24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 1.03

• Sector Performance: NFT sector down 3.5%, Layer 2 sector down 2.22%

• 24-hour Liquidation Data: A total of 120,964 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $220 million, including $42.49 million in BTC, $33.58 million in ETH, and $36.37 million in ALPACA.

• BTC Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper line ($92,403.85), lower line ($90,574.07)

• ETH Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper line ($1,761.90), lower line ($1,727.01)

*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower lines, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF Flows (as of April 29)

• Bitcoin ETF: $170 million (inflow for 8 consecutive days)

• Ethereum ETF: $18.4008 million (inflow for 4 consecutive days)

4. Today's Outlook

• Binance will delist ALPACA, PDA, VIB, and WING on May 2

• Optimism (OP) will unlock approximately 31.34 million tokens at 8:00 AM on April 30, accounting for 1.89% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $25.7 million;

• Renzo (REZ) will unlock approximately 527 million tokens at 7:00 PM on April 30, accounting for 19.57% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $7.4 million;

• Kamino (KMNO) will unlock approximately 229 million tokens at 8:00 PM on April 30, accounting for 16.98% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $14.5 million;

• Gunz (GUN) will unlock approximately 83.33 million tokens at 10:00 PM on April 30, accounting for 13.79% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $5 million.

• Sui (SUI) will unlock approximately 74 million tokens at 8:00 AM on May 1, accounting for 2.28% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $267 million;

• ZetaChain (ZETA) will unlock approximately 44.26 million tokens at 8:00 AM on May 1, accounting for 5.67% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $11.3 million;

• dydx (DYDX) will unlock approximately 8.33 million tokens at 8:00 AM on May 1, accounting for 1.09% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $5.4 million;

The US will release Q1 GDP data on April 30.

The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending April 26 (in ten thousand) (May 1, 20:30)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous: 22.2 / Expected: 22.5

US April unemployment rate (May 2, 20:30)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous: 4.2% / Expected: 4.2%

US April seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population (in ten thousand) (May 2, 20:30)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous: 22.8 / Expected: 13.5

Today's Top 500 Market Cap Gainers: ALPACA up 250.49%, HOUSE up 79.09%, CTK up 37.16%, SIGN up 34.26%, PUNDIX up 31.88%.

5. Hot News

• Standard Crypto partner transferred 2,000 MKR and 20,000 AAVE to Coinbase 1 hour ago

• Coinbase executive: The appreciation of gold may lead the US Treasury to purchase Bitcoin earlier than expected

• Cardone Capital establishes a real estate fund with 10 assets to acquire over 1,000 Bitcoins

• dingaling will launch the Solana-based token issuance platform boop this week and will conduct an airdrop

• A certain whale withdrew 1.5 trillion PEPE from Binance 8 hours ago, worth approximately $13.54 million

• An investor/institution address transferred 9 million UNI to Coinbase Prime 1 hour ago, worth approximately $47.07 million

• El Salvador states it will continue to purchase Bitcoin after reaching an agreement with the International Monetary Fund

• Tether minted 2 billion USDT on the Ethereum network early this morning

• The UK releases a draft for cryptocurrency asset regulation, incorporating cryptocurrency exchanges into the regulatory framework

• Binance Wallet will launch the 14th TGE: B² Network

• DWF Labs announces it will be the market maker for JST tokens

• Upbit will list SIGN on the KRW, BTC, and USDT markets

• Bitcoin exchange supply drops to the lowest level in 7 years

• MicroStrategy spent $1.42 billion last week to acquire 15,355 Bitcoins, with an average purchase price of $92,737

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