Source: Cointelegraph
Original: “Prediction Markets Bet on a Bull Market for Cryptocurrency in 2025”

According to Cointelegraph's review of data from two popular prediction markets, gamblers are betting that 2025 will be a bumper year for the cryptocurrency market.

Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi expect Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) to reach all-time highs in 2025. They also anticipate that the U.S. will approve several new cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and establish strategic Bitcoin reserves.

As of December 26, Kalshi's data shows that the probability of Bitcoin and Ethereum reaching at least $125,000 and $5,000, respectively, in 2025 is over 60%. Polymarket estimates a 50% chance that Bitcoin will hit $120,000 by the end of March.

So far, Bitcoin's historical high is around $108,300, while Ethereum's historical high is about $4,720.

Bitcoin Price Target Source: Kalshi

Meanwhile, gamblers on Polymarket expect U.S. regulators to approve ETFs for Ripple (XRP), Solana (SOL), and Litecoin (LTC) by July 31, with probabilities of approximately 75%, 69%, and 51%, respectively. They believe the probability of approving a Dogecoin (DOGE) ETF by then is about 22%.

Additionally, Kalshi users believe there is a 59% chance that elected President Donald Trump will create a national strategic Bitcoin reserve during his presidency. Polymarket, however, estimates only a 29% chance that Trump will do this within the first 100 days of his term.

Polymarket and Kalshi gained prominence ahead of the November U.S. elections, with trading volume related to the presidential campaign exceeding $4 billion.

Prediction markets operate by allowing users to trade contracts related to specific events, with prices dynamically fluctuating based on expected outcomes. They have proven to be more accurate than traditional polls, having predicted not only Trump's victory but also his party's sweep of the U.S. House and Senate.

Source: Polymarket

Conflicting Signals

Compared to gambling platforms, traditional futures markets expect a more moderate increase in cryptocurrency prices in the first quarter of 2025.

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), one of the largest futures exchanges in the U.S., traders expect the spot prices for Bitcoin and Ethereum to be around $98,000 and $3,500, respectively, in March.

This still represents a significant increase from the spot prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum on December 26, which were $96,000 and $3,350. As of late morning Eastern Time on December 26, both cryptocurrencies had dropped about 4%.

Futures contracts are standardized agreements to buy or sell an underlying asset at a future date. They play a key role in hedging strategies and are also commonly used for speculation.

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