Source: Cointelegraph
Original: “Bitcoin (BTC) Price Shows '40% Discount' as Spot Bitcoin ETF Buys Surge to $3 Billion in One Week”
Key Points:
According to Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at a price that is 40% lower than its intrinsic value.
In a recent post on the X platform, Edwards noted that since the Bitcoin halving event in April 2024, the block reward has decreased to 3.125 BTC, and Bitcoin's "energy value"—an estimate based on mining costs and energy consumption—has reached $130,000.
Latest data from CryptoQuant shows that on April 24, 2024, over 8,756 Bitcoins (approximately $830 million) were withdrawn from the Coinbase platform. The negative net outflow from Coinbase may indicate that institutions are buying in, or that ETF-related purchases reflect underlying demand.
This development aligns with the inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs this week. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that institutions have engaged in a $3 billion "Bitcoin frenzy" over the past few days.
On April 25, 2025, Binance also saw an outflow of 27,750 Bitcoins. Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, pointed out, "This is the third-largest Bitcoin outflow in the exchange's history." While large outflows of funds and positive price movements indicate bullish market momentum, Wedson noted that this does not necessarily mean the market will continue to rise. He stated:
"In 2021, large outflows did not prevent a market crash triggered by China's cryptocurrency ban (April to May). On the other hand, consecutive days of outflows, like during the FTX collapse, often signal the arrival of a market bottom and subsequent recovery."
Will this Bitcoin fractal pattern drive Bitcoin to break $100,000 in April?
Bitcoin's weekly performance marks the highest return so far in 2025 and is the largest increase since November 2024. In addition to similar returns, the price action of Bitcoin also shows the same price behavior.
As shown in the daily chart, Bitcoin is consolidating at a higher range after the breakout, similar to the behavior in the fourth quarter of 2024 (highlighted). Between November 5 and 9, 2024, Bitcoin rose by 13%, followed by another 15% increase between November 10 and 11. The breakout also occurred over the weekend.
Similarly, Bitcoin's price increased by 11% between April 21 and 25, 2024. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also shows similar buying pressure, suggesting that Bitcoin may achieve a 7-10% increase in the coming days, breaking through $100,000.
Although fractal patterns may repeat, they are not entirely reliable. Unlike the fourth quarter of 2024, when Bitcoin entered a price discovery phase and rose without resistance, the current resistance level above $96,100 may hinder the breakout.
Related: “Vitalik: A Story of Ethereum (ETH)” is more about exploring humanity than cryptocurrency.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
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