Source: Cointelegraph
Original: “ARK Invest Raises Optimistic Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction to $2.4 Million by 2030”
ARK Invest, with assets under management in the billions, has raised its "optimistic scenario" price prediction for Bitcoin (BTC) at the end of 2030 from $1.5 million to $2.4 million, primarily driven by increased acceptance of institutional investors and Bitcoin as "digital gold."
According to a report by ARK research analyst David Puell on April 24, the "pessimistic" and "baseline" scenario predictions for Bitcoin have also been raised to $500,000 and $1.2 million, respectively.
These new pessimistic and baseline target prices are an increase from ARK's previous predictions of $300,000 and $710,000 on February 11.
ARK's price prediction model is based on Bitcoin's total addressable market (TAM), penetration rate (the percentage of TAM that Bitcoin could occupy under specific circumstances), and Bitcoin's supply schedule.
"Institutional investment is the biggest contributing factor to our optimistic forecast," Puell stated. He estimates that in the best-case scenario, Bitcoin could achieve a 6.5% penetration rate in a $200 trillion financial market (excluding gold).
The recognition of Bitcoin as "digital gold" is also a major contributing factor to this high valuation. Puell estimates that in the optimistic scenario, by the end of 2030, Bitcoin could capture 60% of gold's $18 trillion market value (based on 2024 data).
Bitcoin becoming a "safe-haven asset" in emerging markets is the third largest contributing factor to ARK's $2.4 million optimistic scenario, accounting for 13.5%.
"This use case for Bitcoin has the greatest potential for capital accumulation," Puell noted, as Bitcoin can protect wealth from inflation and currency devaluation in developing countries.
ARK's Bitcoin price predictions also take into account the Bitcoin reserve strategies of sovereign nations and corporations, as well as Bitcoin financial service factors.
Assuming that the total supply of Bitcoin will reach 21 million by the end of 2030, a Bitcoin price of $2.4 million would give it a market capitalization of $49.2 trillion.
A valuation of $49.2 trillion would nearly exceed the combined GDP of the United States and China.
This would also position Bitcoin to potentially surpass gold as the world's largest asset, with gold currently valued at $22.5 trillion.
Even ARK's pessimistic and baseline targets of $500,000 and $1.2 million imply that Bitcoin needs to achieve annual compound growth rates of 32% and 53% by the end of 2030—such returns are uncommon for assets that have already reached a trillion-dollar valuation.
Bitcoin is recovering from a low of $75,160 in 2025, soaring to the $94,000 range, while the Trump administration established a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
Related: Serbian Prince Filip Claims Bitcoin (BTC) is Under Pressure, Expects Significant Rise
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