The investment logic for the upcoming cryptocurrency market

CN
5 hours ago

A reader wrote in the comment section at the end of the article:

"I no longer know what is worth investing in…"

I don't think this is a bad thing. If it were me, I would refrain from buying anything in a state of confusion and hesitation, observing more and acting less, waiting until I have clarified my thoughts before taking action---during this time, I have only bought Ethereum and no other coins.

In fact, aside from those projects that are purely for fun or speculation, there shouldn't be many projects that are truly worth our serious investment.

This should be the case in any investment market.

In this regard, the investment masters of the past have set a good example for us:

Among thousands of publicly listed companies in the U.S. stock market, Mr. Buffett holds only a little over ten stocks. The number of stocks he heavily invests in is even fewer.

After organizing my thoughts during this period, I roughly categorize the tokens in the current crypto ecosystem into the following types:

The first type is collectibles in the crypto ecosystem.

The most typical tokens in this category are Bitcoin, CryptoPunks, and some on-chain artworks (NFTs), etc.

For these types of assets, I firmly believe that the future of the crypto ecosystem will prosper, and this prosperity will inevitably lead to value spillover into some highly collectible categories.

Therefore, I will choose valuable varieties to buy at the right price.

The second type is tokens with commodity value or utility value.

This type of token is most typically represented by Layer 1 blockchains (L1), where the token is an inseparable part of the project and is the driving force behind its operation.

For these types of assets, I believe that the future of the crypto ecosystem will prosper, and the tokens that can support ecological development will certainly have hope in the future.

Thus, I will also choose valuable tokens to buy at the right price.

The third type is governance tokens that occupy a large market share and only have voting functions.

In the future, for these types of tokens, regardless of how good the underlying project is, how great the team is, or how profitable it is, I will be very cautious if I have to spend real money to buy them. I will mostly just take advantage of airdrops when time and energy permit.

The fourth type is tokens with vague positioning and unclear attributes.

For these types of tokens, the project parties describe them very ambiguously, neither clarifying their utility nor their rights attributes. At most, they might indicate some level of "importance" to the tokens by repurchasing them using project profits in certain situations.

For these types of tokens, I will observe and be cautious in taking action until their functions and attributes are clarified.

There is also a type of true equity token.

These tokens are essentially like stocks. If someone buys all the tokens of this project, it is equivalent to owning all the rights of the project, allowing them to completely reorganize the management at will and take all the profits of the project as they please.

Currently, this type of token seems to be nonexistent in the crypto ecosystem. I will pay attention if it appears in the future.

Using this method to reassess the tokens in the ecosystem, I feel clearer about how to participate: that is, over 95% of the tokens in the ecosystem should be approached with great caution when spending money to buy them---this applies to some well-established classic projects as well as the AI agent projects that have emerged over the past year.

Following this line of thought, I will first strictly review those tokens in my possession that only have governance functions and for which the project parties have unclear definitions for their future development. I will clear out all those that continue to be positioned as governance functions in the future, regardless of how good their underlying stories are, how advanced their frameworks are, or how promising their technologies are.

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