Bearish projections from the International Monetary Fund seemingly buoyed Bitcoin’s holiday rally and bolstered cryptocurrency prices on Tuesday. The IMF's April 2025 World Economic Outlook lowered the U.S. growth forecast for this year to 1.8% from 2.7%, while raising its inflation forecast to 3% from 1.9%. The report also predicted a broad global economic slowdown.
Within an hour of the report, bitcoin surged beyond $90,000 for the first time in seven weeks and pushed the total cryptocurrency market capitalization to $2.9 trillion, according to data from The Block’s price page. The GMCI 30, which focuses on the top 30 digital assets by market cap, also shows broader market strength. Major cryptocurrencies like ETH and SOL saw gains of around 5%.
Some analysts argue that bitcoin’s recent price action supports theories of decoupling from traditional finance and tech stocks. Patrick Liou, Gemini’s associate director of institutional sales, attributed bitcoin's modest divergence to investor caution stemming from President Donald Trump’s criticism of Fed monetary policies and ongoing trade discussions.
“We saw the decoupling really start to materialize on Sunday night,” Liou told The Block. “Investors are currently looking to be in a de-risk mode when evaluating the US, as Trump's rhetoric regarding the Fed has sharpened, and of course, amidst negotiations of trade deals after Liberation Day. Interestingly, one of the rotations has been into bitcoin, and we are seeing a clear decoupling of bitcoin vs. equities and the U.S. dollar.”
While U.S. markets sold off on Monday after the long weekend, bitcoin moved higher and followed gold’s blitz. Spot BTC exchange-traded funds scored $381.4 million in net inflows, the largest single-day cash influx since late January, in another sign of bitcoin’s demand. The U.S. dollar fared worse. TradingView data showed that the DXY, a comparison of the U.S. dollar against six other major currencies, fell to a three-year low.
Soaring gold prices, a weakened greenback and institutional bitcoin flows support BTC’s decoupling thesis, QCP Capital analysts wrote on Tuesday. “Bitcoin’s resilience in the overnight session adds weight to the decoupling narrative,” the QCP analysts said. “As capital rotates into safe-haven and inflation-hedging assets, BTC and gold are proving to be key beneficiaries of the exodus from USD risk. For now, gold and bitcoin are standing tall, shimmering with the weight of a market in search of safety.”
Experts from Bernstein shared similar views, noting that bitcoin outperformed the Nasdaq throughout Trump’s tariff scare.
“We expect Bitcoin and broader global blockchain assets to play a defining role, amidst the deglobalization trends," Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra and Sanskar Chindalia wrote in a report. "The macro supports Gold (up 25% YTD) and thus Digital gold (higher beta and headroom vs Gold), and crypto is one industry where the Trump administration continues to drive regulatory leadership."
While analysts at QCP Capital and Bernstein stressed bitcoin's appeal as a safe-haven asset, Wintermute OTC trader Jake O. cautioned that the apparent decoupling might reverse if the dollar recovers. "As I mentioned yesterday, I think the move is primarily being driven by USD weakness. If that’s the case, the decoupling from equities may not hold once the DXY stabilizes. That’s the key dynamic to watch this week, and this hypothesis has not yet been tested,” he said.
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