Currently, the market is filled with uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. However, it can be anticipated that if the economy does not enter a recession, the Federal Reserve will at least maintain the standard of two rate cuts in 2025, with no possibility of a rate cut before June. On the other hand, if there are expectations of an economic recession, the Federal Reserve may be forced to increase the number of rate cuts, or even start cutting rates earlier than expected, in order to counteract potential economic downturns exacerbated by tariffs.

In simpler terms, if the rate cuts in 2025 are less than or equal to expectations, it indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing. Conversely, if the rate cuts in 2025 exceed expectations and begin earlier, it suggests that the Federal Reserve is losing confidence in the U.S. economy, which also means that the U.S. may have already entered a substantial economic recession, marking the beginning of the "final decline."

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