Today, as soon as I logged in, I saw content shared by a Bloomberg colleague regarding the International Institute of Finance (IIF). The IIF predicts that the U.S. will face a recession this year, which is man-made, primarily due to Trump's tariffs and immigration policies, rather than external shocks like those in 2008 or the COVID-19 pandemic.
IIF forecasts:
The U.S. economy will shrink by 0.8% in the third quarter of 2025 and by 0.3% in the fourth quarter.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates up to six times within 2025, possibly starting as early as June this year.
Driven by tariffs, core PCE inflation may rise to 4.6% by the end of the year (a significant increase from 2.8% in February).
The U.S. GDP growth for the entire year of 2025 is only expected to be 0.8%.
Weakening consumer confidence and a slowdown in manufacturing have already shown signs of economic downturn.
However, this did not affect the rebound of U.S. stocks today. When U.S. stock futures opened in the morning, both the Nasdaq and S&P futures saw an increase, currently up over 1%. Although this is still more than double the decline of 2% from yesterday, it still indicates investors' interest in bottom-fishing.
Bitcoin continued yesterday's trend, showing a good increase during Asian hours. With the rebound in U.S. stocks, it is expected to have a good rise during U.S. hours as well. The VIX has dropped below 32, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is also falling. I must say, $BTC is really strong.
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