Author: Luke, Mars Finance

Introduction: The Calm Before the Storm of Tech Earnings Season

On April 21, 2025, the earnings season for tech stocks in the U.S. will sound like a war drum, with global markets holding their breath and cryptocurrency traders on edge. This week, over 120 companies in the S&P 500 will release their earnings reports for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025 (January to March). The "Magnificent Seven" (Mag7) will kick off with Tesla (April 22), Alphabet (April 24), and Intel (April 24), followed by Microsoft, Meta, and Broadcom (April 30), and Apple and Amazon (May 1), with Nvidia expected to close the show on May 28. This earnings feast is not only the focus of Wall Street but also a stone thrown into the lake of the crypto market, creating ripples.

For crypto traders, tech stock earnings are not distant financial jargon but directly influence the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). The rise and fall of U.S. tech stocks sway the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices, and crypto assets often dance along.

• In Q2 2020, strong earnings from Apple and Microsoft pushed the Nasdaq up 6.8%, and Bitcoin surged past $10,000;
• In Q1 2022, Meta's weak performance dragged the Nasdaq down 4.2%, and Bitcoin fell by 15%.

The upcoming semiconductor tariff policy from the Trump administration adds a shadow to the market, with details expected to be announced by May 7, potentially raising chip costs and affecting Bitcoin mining hardware and blockchain infrastructure.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index has fallen below 98, hitting a three-year low, while gold soared to $3,400. Trump threatened to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, and the market senses a signal for interest rate cuts—CME data shows a probability of over 75% for a rate cut in June. Amid this wave of safe-haven asset enthusiasm, Bitcoin has broken through $87,000, igniting trader excitement. This week's tech stock earnings will serve as a barometer for the crypto market, and traders must stay alert to gauge the pulse.

Why Do Tech Earnings Affect the Crypto Market?

Tech stock earnings in the U.S. act like a mirror, reflecting the pulse of the global economy and stirring the nerves of the crypto market. For traders, these earnings reports are not just a barometer of corporate performance but also key signals that influence position decisions. Here are four dimensions to analyze their profound significance.

1. Resonance Between U.S. Stocks and the Crypto Market

The Magnificent Seven—Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla—have a total market capitalization exceeding $12.5 trillion, occupying nearly half of the Nasdaq 100 index. Their earnings reports directly influence the U.S. stock market, and the crypto market is highly synchronized with U.S. stocks. CoinDesk data shows that from 2020 to 2024, the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index averaged 0.75, with tech stock movements acting as a conductor for crypto assets. In Q2 2020, the better-than-expected earnings from Apple and Microsoft drove the Nasdaq up 6.8%, and Bitcoin soared 20%, breaking the $10,000 mark. Conversely, in Q1 2022, Meta's decline in advertising revenue led to a 4.2% drop in the Nasdaq, and Bitcoin fell from $45,000 to $39,000. In Q3 2024, weak earnings from Nvidia and Amazon dragged the Nasdaq down 2.7%, causing Ethereum to drop to $2,200. This week, the earnings reports from Tesla and Alphabet may stir the waters again, and traders need to be cautious of market chain reactions.

2. The Intersection of AI and Blockchain

AI and cloud computing are the growth engines for tech giants, injecting vitality into the blockchain and Web3 ecosystem. The revenue growth of Microsoft Azure, Amazon AWS, and Google Cloud reflects corporate enthusiasm for decentralized technologies (such as NFTs and DeFi). In June 2024, AWS revenue grew by 18.7%, and Google Cloud grew by 29%, but both fell short of expectations, dragging BTC and ETH down by 8% and 12%, respectively. This quarter, traders will focus on the monetization capabilities of AI (such as the enterprise adoption rate of Microsoft Copilot and the progress of Google Gemini) and capital expenditures. In 2025, the seven giants' AI investments are expected to reach $331 billion, potentially driving the construction of blockchain infrastructure, such as on-chain AI models and decentralized computing markets. However, the low-cost breakthrough of China's AI model DeepSeek has raised market doubts about the returns on high-computing investments, leading to Nvidia's market value evaporating by $590 billion on January 27, with Bitcoin dropping over 5% in a single day. ARK Invest's Cathie Wood stated, "The rise of DeepSeek may depress demand for AI hardware, but the distributed computing of blockchain still has long-term potential." Earnings reports will reveal the collaborative prospects of AI and blockchain, impacting the valuation of crypto assets.

3. Semiconductor Tariffs and Hardware Costs

Trump's semiconductor tariff policy has sown seeds of concern in the crypto market. On April 13, Trump announced that tariff rates would be revealed the following week, with GPUs and chip manufacturing equipment facing a 10% baseline tariff. The earnings reports from Intel, Broadcom, and Nvidia will reflect supply chain pressures, potentially raising the costs of Bitcoin mining hardware and blockchain servers. The cost of TSMC's 2-nanometer chips may rise by 10-20% due to tariffs, increasing the price of mining machines. MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor warned, "If tariffs raise GPU costs, Bitcoin miners' profits will be pressured, which may drag down BTC prices in the short term." Traders need to pay attention to Intel's earnings report for signals on tariff responses and whether it mentions cost pressures on blockchain hardware.

4. Macroeconomic Turbulence and Risk Aversion

The global operations of tech giants serve as a barometer for economic conditions, influencing risk sentiment in the crypto market. Apple's iPhone sales and Tesla's delivery numbers reflect consumer demand, while Meta and Alphabet's advertising revenues gauge corporate confidence. Currently, macroeconomic turbulence is intensifying: the dollar index has fallen below 98, hitting a new low since March 2022, gold has surpassed $3,400, and Trump's threat to fire Powell has triggered a crisis of independence for the Federal Reserve. Although Republican Congressman Kennedy has expressed support for central bank independence, CME data shows that the probability of a rate cut in June has exceeded 75%.

Bitcoin, as a "hard inflation asset," has surged past $87,000, with Arthur Hayes exclaiming, "This may be the last chance for BTC to stay below $100,000!" In Q1 2022, Meta's weak earnings dragged down the Nasdaq, and Bitcoin plummeted by 15%; in 2020, Microsoft's strong performance boosted the market, and Bitcoin surged. Citigroup strategist Scott Chronert pointed out that earnings reports will reveal the extent to which tariffs and recession risks are priced in, providing crucial guidance for crypto traders.

The Undercurrents of Trump's Semiconductor Tariffs

The details of the Trump administration's semiconductor tariff policy are expected to be announced by May 7 at the latest, potentially covering chip manufacturing equipment, raw materials, and finished chips, raising costs for Intel, Broadcom, and Nvidia, and affecting downstream companies like Apple and Microsoft. In January 2025, tariff concerns led to Nvidia and TSMC's stock prices dropping by 16% and 13%, respectively, with Bitcoin and Ethereum falling over 8% during the same period. For crypto traders, the impact of tariffs goes beyond stock volatility. Rising prices for Bitcoin mining hardware may compress miners' profits and increase network difficulty; rising costs for blockchain servers may hinder the deployment of decentralized applications (dApps). Industry insiders analyze, "If tariffs raise GPU prices, small miners will be pushed out, and BTC may face short-term pressure, but it will benefit centralized mining pools in the long run."

The potential effects of tariffs include:

• Hardware costs: The cost of 2-nanometer chips may rise by 10-20%, pushing up prices for mining and blockchain equipment.
• Supply chain adjustments: Companies may relocate production to the U.S., providing short-term benefits for blockchain infrastructure stocks (such as Hut 8).
• Market volatility: Unclear tariff guidance may exacerbate the sell-off of crypto assets, testing traders' risk management.

This week's Intel earnings report will provide early signals regarding the impact of tariffs, while Nvidia's report on May 28 will further reveal strategies for AI chips and blockchain hardware. JPMorgan analyst Mark Murphy warned, "The uncertainty surrounding tariffs may lead tech giants to provide conservative guidance, and the crypto market should prepare for turbulence."

The Macroeconomic Context of Earnings Season

1. DeepSeek and the Cold Reflection on the AI Boom

DeepSeek's low-cost AI breakthrough has disrupted expectations for computing power dependency, leading to Nvidia's market value evaporating by nearly $600 billion on January 27, with Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta collectively losing over $400 billion, and Bitcoin and Ethereum dropping over 5% in a single day. Meta CEO Zuckerberg stated that they are studying the integration of DeepSeek technology but need more computing power. For crypto traders, the AI boom is closely related to blockchain: decentralized computing platforms (such as Render Network) may benefit from a shift in AI investment. Cathie Wood predicts, "Blockchain will play a key role in AI infrastructure." Earnings reports will test how giants balance AI investment with cost optimization, and Nvidia's guidance will directly impact blockchain computing stocks.

2. Valuation of Mag7 and Market Pressure

In 2025, the profit growth rate of Mag7 is expected to slow to 18%, down from 34% in 2024. Microsoft and Meta have dropped over 10%, while Apple, Amazon, and Nvidia have fallen over 20%, and Tesla has plummeted more than 40%. InvestingPro models show that Tesla and Apple's stock prices are above fair value. Wedbush expects that tariff uncertainty will make executives reluctant to provide clear guidance, potentially exacerbating the sell-off in the crypto market. If earnings reports fall short of expectations, Bitcoin may drop below $80,000, testing key support levels.

Conclusion

The earnings season for tech stocks in the U.S. is like a storm sweeping through Wall Street and shaking the crypto market. The performance of Tesla, Alphabet, and Intel will set the tone for the fate of Mag7, while Trump's semiconductor tariffs may reshape chip costs and blockchain hardware prices. Historically, tech stock earnings have repeatedly ignited or extinguished enthusiasm in the crypto market: the upward wave in 2020 and the downturn in 2022 remind traders that earnings reports are a pulse that cannot be ignored.

The crypto market stands at a crossroads of turmoil. The returns on AI investments, the resilience of the semiconductor supply chain, the wave of interest rate cut expectations, and the undercurrents of recession risks will all emerge in the earnings reports. Wedbush's Dan Ives optimistically predicts, "The AI party has just begun." But Citigroup's Scott Chronert warns, "Earnings reports will reveal the truth about risks." Traders need to closely monitor this week's earnings reports, reassess their positions, and seize opportunities amid the turbulent undercurrents.

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