Weekly Reading of a Good Book: "Wave Motion Cycle Theory"
This is a book I can't put down. Wealth in life relies on the Kondratiev wave; it does not change with human will. The more you grow up, the more you believe in fate: one life, two fortunes, three feng shui—this is no exaggeration. When you stand on an ascending escalator, success comes easily, while on a descending escalator, you may be exhausted yet still achieve little. This is the power of cycles!
As a professional investor, revisiting Zhou Jintao's theory on the Kondratiev wave has given me a deeper understanding and insight into my current and future asset allocation strategies. Especially at the critical point of 2025, understanding the endpoints and starting points of cycles is crucial for wealth transition.
1️⃣ How I Understand "Wealth in Life Relies on the Kondratiev Wave"
Zhou Jintao proposed that "wealth in life relies on the Kondratiev wave." In my investment logic and framework, this is a way of thinking that goes with the flow; even pigs can fly when the wind is right. Personal ability is certainly important, but in the context of macro cycles, even the most skilled individuals and teams may achieve nothing or even face total failure in a counter-cyclical environment. Those who go with the trend, even with simple asset allocation, can ride the wave to success.
Looking back over the past twenty years:
• 2008: I clearly remember during the financial crisis when both the real estate and stock markets plummeted; those who dared to act reaped substantial rewards within a few years.
• 2019: This was the low point of the last Kondratiev depression cycle. At that time, I increased my allocation to core assets, including U.S. stocks, #BTC, and tech stocks, which proved to be a highly cost-effective window.
2027 is seen as "the bottom of the fifth Kondratiev depression period and the beginning of recovery." According to cycle theory, 2026-2027 will be an excellent entry opportunity, and at this moment, choosing to rest and conserve energy in 2025 may be the best strategy; doing nothing is also a form of wisdom.
2️⃣ The Nested Structure of Economic Cycles is the Logical Basis for My Medium to Long-Term Strategy
I often categorize the decision-making logic of asset allocation into three levels, corresponding to three types of cycles:
Kondratiev Cycle (60 years): Determines my judgment on the main line of the era, such as whether digitalization and energy transformation have entered a recovery phase.
Juglar Cycle (8-10 years): Guides my judgment on industry rotation and sector switching rhythms.
Kitchin Cycle (4-5 years): Provides a medium to long-term basis for my position adjustments and trading actions.
Only when the three cycles resonate together is it a good time to act; when the cycle directions are chaotic, I tend to lean towards defense and waiting.
3️⃣ 2026-2027: Approaching the Cycle Turning Point, Waiting for the Initial Spring Tide
According to Zhou Jintao's deduction, 2019-2027 is the fifth Kondratiev depression period. Now we are approaching the "threshold of history"—
• Global destocking is nearing its end, and the Federal Reserve may enter a rate-cutting cycle;
• A new wave of technology (AI+, new energy, digital assets) is beginning to show signs of life;
• Global industry and supply chains are being reshaped, with real estate, manufacturing, and exports facing structural reorganization;
All these signs lead me to believe that 2026-2027 is likely to be a resonance point of the Kondratiev bottom + medium wave upward + short wave reversal. Missing such an opportunity would be a regret hard to encounter in a decade.
4️⃣ Current and Future Asset Allocation Strategies (Focusing on 2026-2027)
Based on cycle theory and current macro judgments, my strategies are as follows:
- Stocks
• Focus on early-cycle growth sectors: technology (AI chips, AI applications, smart manufacturing), green energy (hydrogen, nuclear, solar + storage).
• Regional selection leans towards U.S. tech stocks + China + emerging markets in Southeast Asia, which have more attractive valuations.
- Gold
• As a hedge against inflation + dollar decline + geopolitical conflicts, it is still worth a moderate allocation, especially against the backdrop of gold reaching historical highs in 2025.
- Digital Assets
• The #Web3 market is brewing a new round of structural bull market, especially for #BTC and infrastructure projects, which are worth mid-term strategic layout.
• Although not mentioned in Zhou Jintao's book, I believe digital assets could be an important "new variable" in the new round of Kondratiev recovery phase.
- Real Estate
• Still at the end of the adjustment phase, waiting for confirmation of policy and monetary turning points. Prioritize core cities and self-use logic; be cautious with investment properties.
• Structural repair may occur between 2026-2028.
5️⃣ My Fundamental Belief: Go with the Cycle, Control Risks, Wait for the Right Timing
One of the most shocking statements from Zhou Jintao is: "Doing the right thing at the right time is the greatest effort."
As an investor, I increasingly believe that the accumulation of wealth is a long-distance race across cycles, not a game of hot potato.
2026-2027 may just be the beginning of "sweet after bitter." After a decade of macro deleveraging, pandemic disruptions, and geopolitical conflicts, a new round of Kondratiev recovery may be quietly unfolding.
Our team will continue to intensify research and observation on the "new cycle," ready to set sail with you at the wind's peak. 🧐
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
