Chapter 1: The Global Crypto Market Landscape in the Post-Bull Market Era
Since the first half of 2025, the crypto market has entered the "post-bull market" phase, exhibiting characteristics of high-level fluctuations and structural differentiation. Although Bitcoin successfully reached new highs driven by the halving cycle, it soon entered a correction phase. Coupled with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy not shifting to easing as expected and escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, the crypto market has once again been shrouded in the shadow of macroeconomic uncertainty.
The market during this period is not a traditional bear market, nor has it continued the large-scale rise seen in the bull market; rather, it is in a transitional zone after the cyclical peak. Risk appetite has decreased, and capital activity has weakened, but there has not been a systemic liquidity crisis similar to that of 2022. Core assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum still have institutional demand for increased allocation, and while on-chain activity has slightly declined, it has not significantly worsened. Meanwhile, some new narrative sectors such as AI chains, Restaking, and meme coin ecosystems continue to attract speculative capital, presenting a situation of "strong themes in a weak market."
From a macro perspective, in the first half of 2025, the global economy exhibited a complex state of "de-inflation instability and growth pressure." The Federal Reserve maintained a cautious stance in a high-interest-rate environment, with mixed opinions in the market regarding whether it would initiate interest rate cuts within the year. The uncertainty of the interest rate path continued to suppress the upward space for risk assets. A new round of trade friction between the U.S. and China over new energy, high technology, digital infrastructure, and other sensitive areas has become a new variable. Although crypto assets have not been directly involved, geopolitical risks have increased market volatility and posed additional disturbances to investor sentiment.
However, it is worth noting that the globalization and resilience of the crypto industry have significantly improved compared to the past. Multiple jurisdictions, including Hong Kong, Japan, and the UAE, have successively released supportive policies in 2024, promoting the launch of crypto ETFs, the implementation of stablecoin regulations, and the acceleration of Web3 sandboxes, providing clearer compliance pathways for traditional capital to participate. This international support has partially offset the negative impacts of tightening U.S. regulations, resulting in an overall market ecology characterized by "local stagnation and global balance."
Overall, the "post-bull market" does not signify the end of the bull market but rather a transition into a new phase—where the market places greater emphasis on value judgment, users prioritize practical scenarios, and capital trends towards long-termism. In the short term, macro variables will continue to dominate market expectation fluctuations, but in the medium to long term, the market is in a critical period of transitioning to the next cycle of technology-application resonance. Only by identifying sectors and targets with certain growth within the diverse evolution of the global landscape can one grasp the core logic of the "post-bull market era."
Chapter 2: The Gradual Fading of the Trade War Shadow and Its Macroeconomic Impact
In the first half of 2025, the renewed trade friction between the U.S. and China became a significant disruptive factor in the global market, especially in the context of the approaching U.S. elections and intensified policy games, involving multiple sensitive areas such as new energy, AI chips, critical rare earths, and digital technology export controls. However, compared to the peak of the trade war from 2018 to 2020, this round of trade disputes is more "symbolic," with relatively mild economic impacts and long-term structural effects, showing characteristics of gradual "fading."
On one hand, the intensity of the new round of tariffs imposed by the U.S. is clearly constrained by domestic inflation pressures and voter interests. In a high-interest-rate, high-price environment, significantly raising tariffs on Chinese goods would further increase import prices, weakening the momentum of consumer recovery. Therefore, the Biden administration's use of tariffs in an election year leans more towards tactical "symbolic" operations rather than a comprehensive strategic upgrade. On the Chinese side, a rational and restrained attitude has been maintained, focusing on stabilizing exports and attracting foreign investment, without large-scale reciprocal countermeasures, keeping the overall trade friction in a state of "limited confrontation."
From a macro data perspective, although the disturbances from U.S.-China trade friction have triggered a temporary rise in risk aversion, they have not led to a systemic risk reassessment in the global financial market. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices quickly stabilized after the shock, and the dollar index and gold maintained strong fluctuations, indicating that market participants' broad expectations regarding this round of trade disputes have already been reflected in prices. The crypto market also quickly recovered after a brief decline, showing significantly enhanced resilience compared to the past.
For the crypto market, the indirect impacts of the trade war are mainly reflected in three aspects:
First, a short-term contraction in risk appetite. Trade tensions can temporarily undermine market confidence, triggering a strengthening of safe-haven assets (such as gold and U.S. Treasuries), while high-volatility assets like cryptocurrencies are more likely to be sold off as a "liquidity reservoir." Second, a transformation in cross-border capital flows. Trade and technology sanctions are often accompanied by increased financial scrutiny and cross-border payment regulations, leading some funds to begin on-chain transfers through stablecoins and BTC, stimulating an increase in on-chain trading volume and boosting interest in crypto assets in some Asian markets. Third, a strengthening of the medium- to long-term de-dollarization trend. Trade friction has intensified emerging market countries' doubts about the stability of the dollar system, with more countries exploring cross-border settlement paths for digital currencies and tokenized assets, indirectly enhancing the strategic position of public chains like Ethereum in global financial infrastructure.
It is noteworthy that since Q2 2025, as global inflation gradually recedes and central banks in multiple Eurasian countries begin to contemplate interest rate cuts, expectations for a shift in the Federal Reserve's stance have gradually increased. Coupled with a return to rationality in trade negotiations, the crypto market's sensitivity to geopolitical friction is decreasing. The net inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs has stabilized, indicating that institutional investors have gradually begun to view trade risks as "background fluctuations" rather than decisive variables.
Overall, although this round of the trade war has caused temporary disturbances in sentiment, its actual impact on the crypto market has significantly weakened. The global macro environment is transitioning from the "tail end of tightening" to "moderate recovery," and the risk pricing logic in the crypto market is also shifting from "geopolitical tension" to "interest rate inflection points." During this phase, the importance of macro influences cannot be ignored, but the true driving force of the market may quietly return to the internal cycles of technological innovation and on-chain ecological evolution.
Chapter 3: Potential Driving Factors for Market Rebound in the Second Half of the Year
After experiencing suppression in the first half of 2025 due to the global macro environment, trade friction, and crypto regulatory policies, the crypto market is showing a series of rebound signals. The potential for market rebound in the second half of the year mainly stems from several key driving factors that collectively contribute to the possibility of recovery in the crypto market.
3.1. Changes in the Interest Rate Cycle and Recovery of Risk Appetite
In the first half of 2025, the global economy gradually emerged from the post-pandemic high inflation scenario, with major central banks gradually adjusting monetary policies, particularly the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank slowing down interest rate hikes. The market generally expects that the interest rate cut cycle may begin in the second half of the year. This trend has particularly profound implications for the crypto market. First, a low-interest-rate environment typically reduces the returns on traditional financial assets, further driving capital towards high-risk, high-return asset classes. Second, interest rate cuts may lead institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals to seek higher returns, potentially increasing their allocation to crypto assets, thereby driving up the prices of major crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Additionally, as the U.S. government and other global economies strive to stimulate economic vitality through monetary easing policies, the crypto market, as an "alternative investment asset," may become part of the capital market, attracting more institutional funds and retail investors to participate.
3.2. Continuous Innovation and Expansion of Decentralized Finance (DeFi)
Decentralized finance (DeFi) has undergone a complex market adjustment over the past two years, but with continuous technological maturation and the expansion of application scenarios, the DeFi ecosystem is expected to welcome a new breakout point in the second half of 2025. With ongoing advancements in Layer 2 solutions, cross-chain interoperability, and privacy protection technologies, DeFi has achieved significant improvements in scalability, cost-effectiveness, and security, attracting more institutional participants.
Particularly in the areas of decentralized lending, derivatives trading, and synthetic assets, the DeFi market is gradually beginning to penetrate the "gray areas" of traditional financial markets. For example, through innovations in DeFi protocols, institutional funds can hedge through on-chain derivatives, and investors can participate in the market in a more flexible and cost-effective manner. This development potential will help drive a structural rebound in the crypto market in the second half of the year.
3.3. Continued Entry of Institutional Investors
The entry of institutional investors is undoubtedly one of the most critical factors in the maturation of the crypto market. From Bitcoin ETFs to ETH futures, and the gradual increase in crypto asset holdings by more institutional funds, the influx of institutions has brought more capital and robust risk management mechanisms to the market. As the regulatory framework becomes clearer and the capital market gradually opens up, more traditional financial institutions will participate in the investment and custody of crypto assets.
Moreover, some large enterprises (such as payment giants, internet platforms, and investment banks) are gradually recognizing the strategic significance of crypto assets in diversified asset allocation. This not only means that the capital pool in the crypto market is continuously expanding but also indicates that the crypto market is gradually moving towards mainstream acceptance in traditional financial markets. In the second half of the year, as more institutions recognize and invest in crypto assets, the momentum for market rebound will be further strengthened.
3.4. Breakthroughs and Maturation in Blockchain Technology Applications
The long-term development of the crypto market relies not only on price fluctuations but also on the practical applications of blockchain technology. In 2025, significant progress has been made in the application of blockchain in various fields such as finance, supply chain, healthcare, and copyright management. Particularly in cross-border payments, smart contracts, and decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), blockchain technology is continuously breaking down barriers in traditional industries, promoting the scaling and maturation of the crypto asset market.
The success of these technological applications, especially in the fintech and commercial sectors, will further stimulate market demand for crypto assets. In the second half of 2025, as blockchain technology continues to achieve breakthroughs, its role in the real economy will become more prominent, aiding the recovery and rebound of the crypto market.
Through the combination of the above factors, the crypto market in the second half of 2025 possesses strong rebound potential driven by multiple favorable factors. The market's recovery may become more pronounced, especially with the support of institutional investors, technological advancements, and the global economy shifting towards monetary easing, the crypto market is expected to welcome broader development space.
Chapter 4: The Divergence Trends of Major Chains and Assets
4.1 Redefining the "Safe-Haven Attributes" of Bitcoin and Ethereum
In this round of macro turbulence, Bitcoin has once again been defined by the market as "digital gold" and an anti-inflation asset. Particularly against the backdrop of widening divergences in global central bank monetary policies and frequent geopolitical conflicts, BTC has demonstrated relative resilience against declines.
Ethereum, on the other hand, is gradually becoming synonymous with "digital financial platforms." With the enhancement of L2 scalability, the maturation of the Restaking mechanism, and the explosion of the Data Availability (DA) layer, its value logic has shifted from "Gas fee income" to "on-chain economic operating infrastructure." In the future, Bitcoin will possess more attributes of a global reserve asset, while Ethereum may carry more Web3 infrastructure and financial innovations.
4.2 Solana and the Meme Experiment of "High-Performance Chains"
Chapter 4: The Divergence Trends of Major Chains and Assets
4.1 Solana and the Meme Experiment of "High-Performance Chains"
The Solana chain experienced a surge of meme enthusiasm and on-chain innovation from the end of 2023 to the beginning of 2024. High TPS, high user engagement, and low gas fees made it a popular public chain for meme speculation and the deployment of emerging DApps. However, as the market adjusted, on-chain funds and projects gradually differentiated, with Solana projects that have "substantial ecosystems" (such as Jupiter and Tensor) beginning to pull away from purely meme coins, marking Solana's entry into a new phase of ecological depth construction. Similar situations are seen with other public chains like Base, Sui, and Aptos, all facing the challenge of ecological consolidation after the "peak of speculation."
4.2 Layer 2 and Cross-Chain Technology: Multi-Chain Collaboration Becomes a Trend
Ethereum Layer 2 solutions represented by Arbitrum and Optimism have significantly improved transaction efficiency and reduced costs, bringing the on-chain interaction experience closer to that of "centralized apps." As ZK Rollup technology matures further (such as zkSync and Starknet), the synergistic effects of multi-chain coexistence and cross-chain liquidity protocols (like LayerZero and Wormhole) will continue to strengthen. In the future, users will no longer focus on "which chain" but rather on "whether it is user-friendly, secure, and sufficiently liquid." This presents enormous development space for cross-chain assets, unified wallets, and aggregated liquidity protocols.
Overall, in the second half of 2025, the differentiation of assets and chains in the crypto market will become more pronounced. With technological advancements and changes in market demand, multiple public chains will competitively occupy market share, and the application scenarios for various digital assets will become increasingly rich. The trend of differentiation in the crypto market not only promotes the diversified development of different asset classes but also accelerates the overall maturity and improvement of the market structure.
Chapter 5: Outlook and Strategic Recommendations—Can We Expect a New Round of Market Rally in the Second Half of the Year?
As 2025 unfolds, the crypto market, after experiencing earlier turbulence and adjustments, is seeing market participants' expectations for the future gradually shift towards a more positive direction. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, whether the crypto market can usher in a new round of rally depends on changes in the macro economy, advancements in blockchain technology, market liquidity, and adjustments in the policy environment. In this context, we propose the following strategic recommendations to help market participants seize future investment opportunities.
5.1. Key Driving Factors: Macroeconomic Recovery, Technological Advancements, and Capital Flow
To determine whether the crypto market can experience a new round of rally, it is essential to clarify several key driving factors:
Macroeconomic Recovery: As the global economy gradually recovers from the post-pandemic recession, monetary and fiscal policies in various countries may also shift towards easing. Particularly in the U.S. and Europe, accommodative monetary policies could lead to more funds flowing into the crypto market. Additionally, as uncertainty in global financial markets and volatility in traditional assets increase, more investors are turning to crypto assets as a safe-haven choice.
Technological Innovation and Network Upgrades: Continuous innovations in blockchain technology, especially upgrades to public chains like Ethereum 2.0, Solana, and Polkadot, will bring higher transaction efficiency and lower costs to the market, enhancing the attractiveness of crypto assets. At the same time, the maturation of Layer 2 technology, strengthening of cross-chain protocols, and ongoing development of smart contracts and decentralized finance (DeFi) may become significant technological forces driving market rebounds.
Capital Liquidity and Institutional Participation: As institutional investors gradually enter the crypto market, market liquidity will also improve. The participation of institutional capital not only provides deeper market liquidity but also enhances market stability and maturity. Especially with the introduction of ETFs and futures, more traditional investors are beginning to participate, injecting new vitality into the crypto market.
5.2. Key Factors for Rebound in the Second Half of the Year
Although the outlook for the crypto market is optimistic, whether a new round of rally can occur in the second half of the year still depends on the interplay of several key factors:
Clarification of Policies: Currently, there remains uncertainty regarding regulatory policies for the crypto market globally. While some countries have begun to provide clear regulatory frameworks for the crypto market, others are still in a wait-and-see mode. Further clarification of regulatory policies, especially regarding stablecoins, DeFi, and NFTs, will have a profound impact on the market. If major economies such as the U.S., Europe, and Asia introduce more friendly policies and provide positive guidance for crypto assets, market sentiment and capital inflow will significantly improve.
Improvement in Market Sentiment: In the second half of 2025, a warming of sentiment in the crypto market will be a crucial prerequisite for market rebound. Compared to 2024, market sentiment has gradually shifted from pessimism to neutrality, with increasing recognition of crypto assets among investors. As the macroeconomic environment improves and more investors join, market sentiment is expected to further improve, leading to capital inflows. This process may gradually be realized with the support of technological innovations and policies, ultimately driving up market prices.
Large Capital Involvement: The involvement of large capital, especially the participation of institutional investors, will be another key factor for the rebound of the crypto market. In the second half of 2025, as more financial institutions and large capital participate, market liquidity and the scale of inflows will significantly increase. Particularly with the booming development of ETFs, futures, and other derivative markets, market volatility may decrease, further enhancing capital inflows and market stability.
Maturation of Decentralized Finance (DeFi): As an important component of the crypto market, decentralized finance (DeFi) may see further development in the second half of 2025. Improvements in the security, liquidity, and user experience of DeFi protocols will attract more investors and developers. The expansion of DeFi platforms and decentralized financial services will bring new momentum to the entire crypto market, especially in the fields of cross-chain trading and DeFi derivatives innovation.
5.3. Strategic Recommendations
In light of the potential rebound in the crypto market in the second half of 2025, investors should formulate corresponding investment strategies based on market potential and risks. Here are several feasible strategic recommendations:
Stick to Long-Term Investment in Mainstream Assets: Despite the presence of numerous emerging chains and assets in the market, Bitcoin and Ethereum remain the "main forces" in the crypto market. Bitcoin, as digital gold, will not easily lose its status as a safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, Ethereum continues to dominate the development of smart contracts and decentralized applications (DApps). For long-term investors, holding Bitcoin and Ethereum remains a sound strategy, especially when market sentiment improves, as the return potential of mainstream assets remains considerable.
Focus on Innovative Chains and Emerging Assets: For investors with a higher risk appetite, considering investments in public chains and assets with technological innovations and high growth potential may be worthwhile. For instance, chains like Solana, Avalanche, and Polkadot are attracting increasing attention from developers and investors. These chains offer different technological solutions compared to Ethereum, boasting higher transaction efficiency and lower costs, which may lead to better-than-expected market performance, particularly in applications within DeFi and NFTs.
Enhance Allocation in Stablecoins and DeFi Assets: Stablecoins and DeFi assets, as important components of the crypto market, also provide new investment opportunities for investors. The application scenarios for stablecoins will further expand, becoming important mediums for cross-chain trading and decentralized finance. Meanwhile, DeFi protocols and assets may become new growth points in the market, and investors could consider allocating some high-quality DeFi tokens to share in the growth dividends of the DeFi ecosystem.
Monitor Policy Dynamics and Regulatory Risks: Investors should always pay attention to policy changes in the global crypto market, especially regarding regulations on stablecoins, DeFi, and NFTs. The support and constraints of policies will directly impact market capital inflows and development directions. Actively monitoring regulatory progress and swiftly adjusting investment strategies once policies are clarified will help mitigate regulatory risks and seize potential investment opportunities.
In summary, the potential for a rebound in the crypto market in the second half of 2025 remains significant, but whether a new round of rally can occur depends on the interplay of multiple factors. From macroeconomic recovery, technological advancements, and capital liquidity to policy clarification, all factors are providing momentum for the recovery of the crypto market. In this context, investors should flexibly adjust their strategies and continuously monitor market changes and potential opportunities.
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