Source: Cointelegraph Original: "{title}"
On April 16, Bitcoin (BTC) price once again failed to break through the $86,000 resistance level. This followed comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who cited the impact of Trump's tariff policies, dispelling market expectations for an early rate cut.
Since April 9, the highest point on the BTC daily chart has fluctuated between $75,000 and $86,400, but it has consistently failed to close above $86,000.
As BTC maintains a narrow range in the low time frame (LTF) on the 4-hour chart, many analysts and traders are exploring "where Bitcoin's price will go next."
According to predictions from Polymarket bettors, the probability of current interest rates remaining in the 4.25% to 4.50% range is 88%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 10%.
However, the market generally believes that the bearish impact of keeping rates unchanged has already been priced in.
On April 16, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the Fed would not rush to cut rates. Speaking in Chicago, he emphasized a "wait-and-see" approach, needing more economic data before adjusting policy.
Powell highlighted the risks posed by Trump's tariff policies, which could drive up inflation and slow economic growth, potentially creating a "challenging situation" for the Fed's dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment.
In his speech, Powell stated, "The announced tariff increases are significantly higher than expected." He added:
"The economic impact may be similar, which will include higher inflation and slower growth."
He stressed the need to maintain a tightening policy to ensure that inflation does not persist, indicating that there would be no immediate rate cuts even in the face of market volatility and tariff uncertainties.
In response, Trump criticized Powell for being "always too late and wrong," calling his April 16 report a typical example of complete "chaos."
"The sooner Powell is fired, the better!"
Meanwhile, Polymarket predicts that the probability of Bitcoin reaching $90,000 by April 30 is 46%, while the likelihood of breaking $110,000 to set a new all-time high is less than 5%.
Bitcoin must convert the $86,000 resistance level into a support level to target the higher goal of $90,000.
To achieve this, BTC/USD must first reclaim the 200-day exponential moving average (purple line) at $87,740. BTC lost this trend line for the first time on March 9 since August 2024.
Above this, there is a major supply zone extending up to $91,240, where the 100-day simple moving average is located. Bulls also need to break through this barrier to increase the chances of BTC reaching $100,000.
Conversely, bears will attempt to maintain the $86,000 resistance level, increasing the likelihood of a drop below $80,000 to set a new low. A key area of concern lies between $76,000 and $74,000, which corresponds to the previous historical highs set in March 2024.
If this area is breached, the next step will be to retest the price of $67,817 on U.S. election day, erasing all gains attributed to the so-called "Trump rally."
On-chain analyst James Check pointed out that Bitcoin's true bottom is around its "real market average"—the average cost basis of active investors—approximately in the $65,000 range.
"The $75,000 area is where you want the bulls to defend," James stated in an interview on the TFTC podcast, adding:
"If this level cannot be held, the next step will be for the market to return to a consolidation range, and we need to observe the depth of the pullback, with the final support level at $65,000."
Interestingly, this price level is very close to Michael Saylor's strategy cost basis, which is around $67,500.
Related: Bitcoin sees slight buying at the lower end of the range, but remains cautious before $90,000 turns into a support level.
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trade involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
