From Powell's perspective, it's very easy to empathize with his logic—

Powell appears very refined in front of reporters, but behind the scenes, he may have cursed Trump’s ancestors countless times.

Before Trump took office, the path was quite clear: "to keep inflation around the neutral level of 2%," which has been Powell's consistent policy goal over the past three years.

However, after the "understanding king" took office, everything was thrown into chaos, directly disrupting the Federal Reserve's rhythm.

It is certain that someone as shrewd as Powell would not want to pay for the arrogance of the "understanding king." Because the "understanding king" has done this before—

Blaming the Federal Reserve when the economy is bad, and also blaming the Federal Reserve when inflation is high.

If interest rates are lowered now, the "understanding king" is very likely to immediately shift the blame to the Federal Reserve, saying it’s their fault for not controlling inflation and allowing the currency to flood.

So when a reporter asked yesterday, "If the U.S. stock market crashes, will the Federal Reserve step in?" Powell replied firmly: NO! I don’t want to clean up the mess.

The current market divergence can be seen as a disagreement between Trump and the Federal Reserve on the underlying logic of dealing with dollar assets—

Trump: If interest rates are allowed to remain high, then the public sector's interest payment costs will also remain high, and the risk of debt default will eventually explode, making a financial crisis inevitable.

Federal Reserve: If the U.S. economy goes into recession + rapid interest rate cuts, then funds may not even be willing to wait a minute; dollar assets will be immediately sold off, and funds will quickly flee, thereby triggering a financial crisis even faster.

In such a conflicting situation, the expectations for multiple interest rate cuts and rapid cuts by the Federal Reserve this year are bound to be much less than before.

It’s not that they don’t want to, but that they can’t, and they don’t dare. This is the last remaining tool for the U.S. right now; who would dare to take the blame?

Old Powell just wants to hold on until the end of his term next year. After he resigns, you can arrange whoever you want, and you can find whoever to take the blame!

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