Today's market expectations originally hoped that Powell would release dovish signals in the face of tariffs and potential economic recession. Even if he did not cut interest rates, he should have soothed market sentiment. However, he maintained a neutral to hawkish stance, clearly denying the possibility of short-term interest rate cuts and pausing the balance sheet reduction, and did not express any stance on responding to economic downturns, emphasizing the need to wait for the actual impact of tariffs on inflation before making decisions.

Although GDPNow data indicates that GDP may decline, if gold imports and exports are not included in core economic activities, the risk of recession is difficult to confirm. As a result, the market has entered a tug-of-war situation of "which comes first, inflation or recession." On the other hand, Powell emphasized the urgency of stablecoin legislation and signaled a moderate relaxation of cryptocurrency regulation, which is beneficial for the long-term development of the industry.

BTC turnover rate has fallen, confirming that the previous day's fluctuations may have stemmed from internal transfers within exchanges rather than user panic. Currently, most of the exiters are short-term loss investors; major funds are still concentrated in the $83,000 range, and high-position holders remain steady, indicating that long-term confidence has not wavered. Overall, while the market is under short-term pressure, structural support and policy statements still lay the foundation for the medium to long term.

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