Source: Cointelegraph Original: "{title}"
According to the latest report from Binance Research, the push for Ethereum to scale to Layer 2 (L2) blockchains may be a double-edged sword, potentially undermining the value accumulation of the world's second-largest cryptocurrency.
The report points out that Ethereum's L2 blockchain network—built to improve the scalability of the mainnet and reduce transaction costs—could erode the foundational layer of Ethereum, negatively impacting the price of ETH.
Binance Research stated that Ethereum's dominance in decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volume and fees is being "threatened" by Solana and the BNB Smart Chain.
Ethereum, Solana, BNB DEX trading volume. Source: Binance Research
The report highlights key factors including slow transaction speeds and high costs, "developer mindset share and liquidity fragmentation, as well as reduced value accumulation of L1 due to the rise of L2."
Ethereum's roadmap already includes future upgrade plans aimed at achieving lower transaction costs, enhancing security, and providing more forward-looking incentive mechanisms for the mainnet.
However, since the next two major upgrades will not immediately address these issues but rather focus on creating more scalability around data availability and integrating more L2 networks, ETH's value accumulation may continue to be under pressure in the short term.
Since the price of Ether dropped to $1,410 on April 7, marking the lowest level since March 2023, market concerns about the economic incentives of Ethereum's mainnet have been reignited.
ETH/USD one-year chart. Source: Cointelegraph
According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro, the price of ETH has fallen over 61% during a four-month downtrend that began when ETH briefly broke above $4,100 on December 16, 2024.
After initial delays, the highly anticipated Ethereum Pectra upgrade is set to go live on the mainnet on May 7.
The Pectra upgrade aims to improve ETH staking and L2 network scalability, increase blob capacity for more data processing on the mainnet, and enhance overall network capacity.
The Fusaka upgrade, expected to launch by the end of 2025, will focus on expanding the Ethereum mainnet as a data availability layer by introducing EIP-7594. Fusaka may also bring updates to the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), enabling a "more structured approach" to smart contract creation, reducing operational overhead, and improving the developer experience.
Ethereum data capacity upgrade. Source: Binance Research
The report notes that due to market concerns about the mainnet's "competitiveness as a data availability layer" and the "sustainability of Ethereum asset value accumulation," Ethereum's commitment to L2 scalability may become a "double-edged sword."
A spokesperson from Binance Research stated, "A promising avenue for strengthening ETH value accumulation is the development of based rollups," which, compared to L2 solutions like Base, Arbitrum, and Optimism, can "contribute more fees to Ethereum."
Cost comparison of L2 and rollups paid to the Ethereum mainnet. Source: Binance Research
The spokesperson told Cointelegraph, "Another avenue is Ethereum's ongoing role as a data availability layer." They added:
"The value accumulation achieved through this model depends on external factors: L2 must continue to choose Ethereum as the data availability layer, and in the competitive landscape where alternatives like Solana and BNB Smart Chain are gaining momentum, demand for block space must continue to grow."
They also stated, "If Ethereum continues to commit to scaling through L2, establishing a reasonable incentive mechanism structure between Ethereum and L2 will be crucial, whether through fee sharing, MEV capture, or protocol-level integration, all of which will ensure that value can continue to flow to ETH as an asset."
Related: Ethereum (ETH) market share approaches historical lows, price may drop to $1,100
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