In the past two days, the main topic of discussion has been tariffs. As a result, this morning when I opened my eyes and saw the decline in US stocks and Bitcoin, I guessed that tariffs were causing trouble again. On one hand, the US has restricted the export of Nvidia and AMD chips to China, and on the other hand, Hong Kong has halted shipments to the US. The friction over tariffs between China and the US continues to escalate, and gold continues to rise, indicating strong risk aversion among investors.

However, Trump is very confident that the tariff policy will lead to a decrease in product prices and can also lower inflation. Whether we believe it or not is not important; what matters is whether the Federal Reserve believes it. If the Federal Reserve believes it, then monetary easing is not far off.

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