The U.S. stock market entering a bear market does not necessarily mean that #BTC is also entering a bear market!

It can only be said that the liquidity of cryptocurrencies will become increasingly tight.

Historically, #BTC has had a stronger negative correlation with the U.S. dollar index, and this history is longer, meaning:

When the U.S. dollar index falls 📉 — the price of #BTC tends to rise 📈. Recently, the U.S. dollar index fell below 100, which has actually created significant benefits for #BTC, gold, and the yen (as shown in Figure 1).

After the approval of the #BTC spot ETF in 2024, the price of #BTC will have a strong correlation with Nasdaq tech stocks, and this correlation is continuously strengthening. This is mainly due to companies like MicroStrategy holding a large amount of #BTC, creating a strong binding effect, and there is a significant arbitrage linkage between cryptocurrencies and stocks, leading to increased correlation (as shown in Figure 2).

But is there a day when #BTC completely decouples from the U.S. stock market? This situation is possible, especially when the credit of the U.S. dollar begins to show signs of crisis, such as special situations like short-term defaults on U.S. Treasury bonds. In such cases, the credit system may be reshaped, and funds will choose more safe-haven options to diversify risks, such as gold, the yen, and #BTC. 🧐

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