Metrics Ventures April Market Observation Guide for the Cryptocurrency Market:

1/ The past week has been remarkable in the history of dollar assets. From the perspective of dollar asset prices, this is likely just a disturbance testing key support levels in a bull-bear scenario. However, in the broader context of the East rising and the West falling, the entire process of tariffs will become a significant turning point.

2/ As we mentioned last month, the adjustments in MSTR and BTC have been very healthy. The low volatility characteristics of Bitcoin in this new cycle are evident. Therefore, we remain optimistic about the performance of MSTR and BTC for the rest of this year. The key support level of 75,000 has seen an enormous demand, accompanied by numerous bullish divergence signals, resonating with the rebound of dollar assets, which will form at least a weekly level trend.

3/ Political affairs are not something we typically discuss in our public monthly reports, although they are an important part of our trading framework's "bold assumptions." Standing at this epic weekly weekend, I believe it is overly pessimistic to worry about potential further dollar disturbances in the coming months. From a price perspective, the market has likely passed the extreme test.

Overall Market Review and Commentary on Market Trends:

From a purely market perspective, we want to further emphasize, in the recent strong divergence in the market, that dollar risk assets have released enormous amounts at relatively sufficient adjustment positions/bear market critical support levels. In the case of the seven sisters breaking down, the trends of MSTR and BTC are clearly strong feedback. At the same time, we have noticed the following divergence phenomena:

① Significant divergence between Bitcoin prices and contract holdings (Coinglass data):

② Divergence in Bitcoin's own MACD and RSI:

Therefore, overall, we believe that the extreme test position is the recent low point.

After the previous market peak, MSTR still consistently ranks among the top ten in daily trading volume in U.S. stocks. We believe this also follows the funding hypothesis we mentioned in our special report in October 2024. In the future, we expect a continuous influx of liquidity from U.S. stocks into Bitcoin, with assets like GME joining the BTC funding pool. This model is reminiscent of the Eastern real estate stock strategies that began two decades ago.

Renminbi assets have also undergone a visually perceivable extreme test, allowing more people to understand the facts of the East rising and the West falling, such as military, manufacturing, technology, and demographic structure, which we began discussing at the end of 2024. At this moment, the Shanghai Composite Index is still consolidating above the second gap, and with the subsequent synchronized easing of monetary policy in the East and West, more investors are likely to discover trends such as the upgrade of consumer brands and breakthroughs in chips that have occurred in the Eastern economy in recent years. Although the tariff event can be seen as a shock to asset prices, it will become a clear acceleration event in the long-term trend of the East rising and the West falling.

Finally, as market sentiment gradually stabilizes and VIX declines, we want to say that at this moment, concerns about monetary stability, sovereign stability, financial stability, and asset security are precisely the scenarios envisioned at the birth of Bitcoin nearly 20 years ago. The vision once held will not shift due to the transfer of pricing power, but whether the original intention remains will truly reveal itself in 2025-2026.

At this moment, it is just like that time.

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