Metrics Ventures April Market Observation on the Crypto Market

1/ The past week has been remarkable in the history of dollar assets. From the perspective of dollar asset prices, this is likely just a disturbance testing key support levels in the bull-bear cycle. However, in the broader context of the East rising and the West falling, the entire tariff process will become a significant turning point.

2/ As we mentioned last month, the adjustments in MSTR and BTC have been very healthy. The low volatility characteristics of Bitcoin in this new cycle are evident, so we remain optimistic about MSTR and BTC's performance for the rest of the year. The key support level of 75,000 has seen an enormous demand, accompanied by numerous bullish divergence signals, resonating with the rebound of dollar assets, which will form at least a weekly level trend.

3/ Political affairs are not typically within the scope of our public monthly reports. Although this is an important part of our trading framework's "bold assumptions," standing at this epic weekly weekend, I believe it is overly pessimistic to worry about potential further dollar disturbances in the coming months. From a price perspective, the market has likely passed the extreme test.

Market Overview and Commentary on Overall Market Trends

On the purely market side, we want to further emphasize through technical analysis that in the recent strong divergence in the market, dollar risk assets have released enormous volumes at relatively sufficient adjustment positions/bear market critical support levels. In the case of the seven sisters breaking down, the trends of MSTR and BTC are clearly strong feedback. At the same time, we have noticed the following divergence phenomena:

① Significant divergence between Bitcoin prices and contract holdings (Coinglass data):

② Divergence in Bitcoin's own MACD and RSI:

Therefore, overall, we believe that the extreme test position is the recent low point.

After the previous market peak, MSTR still consistently ranks among the top ten in daily trading volume in U.S. stocks. We believe this also follows the funding hypothesis we mentioned in our special report in October 2024. In the future, it is expected to continuously draw liquidity from U.S. stocks to support Bitcoin, alongside assets like GME that have newly joined the BTC funding pool. This model is reminiscent of the Eastern real estate stock strategies that began two decades ago.

Renminbi assets have also undergone a visually perceivable extreme test, allowing more people to understand the facts of the East rising and the West falling, such as military, manufacturing, technology, and demographic structure, which we began discussing at the end of 2024. At this moment, the Shanghai Composite Index is still consolidating above the second gap, and with the subsequent synchronized easing of monetary policy in the East and West, more investors are likely to discover the trends in the Eastern economy, such as the upgrading of consumer brands and breakthroughs in chips. Although the tariff event can be seen as a shock to asset prices, it will become a clear acceleration event in the long-term trend of the East rising and the West falling.

Finally, as market sentiment gradually stabilizes and VIX declines, we want to say that at this moment, concerns about currency stability, sovereign stability, financial stability, and asset security are precisely the scenarios anticipated at the birth of Bitcoin nearly 20 years ago. The vision once held will not shift due to the transfer of pricing power, but whether the original intention remains will truly reveal itself in 2025-2026.

At this moment, it is just like then.

About Us

Metrics Ventures is a data and research-driven liquidity fund for the secondary market of crypto assets, led by a team of experienced crypto professionals. The team possesses expertise in primary market incubation and secondary market trading, actively contributing to industry development through in-depth on-chain/off-chain data analysis. MVC collaborates with senior influential figures in the crypto community to provide long-term empowerment support for projects, such as media and KOL resources, ecological collaboration resources, project strategies, and economic model consulting capabilities.

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