This may be the first time in history that Bitcoin has outperformed the stock market during a global market adjustment.

Written by: Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise

Translated by: Luffy, Foresight News

I don't know if you've noticed this astonishing fact: in the past month, the price of Bitcoin has hardly changed.

As I write this memo, Bitcoin is trading at $84,379; a month ago, it was priced at $84,317. This means the return over 30 days is only 0.07%.

The crypto market has faced tremendous shocks from all directions, from the U.S. establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve to President Trump imposing tariffs globally, yet Bitcoin's price has remained flat.

Thinking about all the time, energy, and anxiety I've invested in researching the market over the past 30 days makes me want to cry.

On the other hand, Bitcoin's recent performance has left me in awe. The U.S. stock market peaked on February 19 and has since fallen by 12.0%. During the same period, Bitcoin dropped by 12.4%. This is markedly different from previous market corrections.

The last time the stock market entered a correction was in 2022, when the S&P 500 index fell by 24.5% from January 3 to October 12. During this period, Bitcoin fell by 58.3%.

Going further back, at the beginning of 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic broke out, the S&P 500 index plummeted by 33.8%… while Bitcoin fell by 38.1%.

Even further back, at the end of 2018, the escalation of the U.S.-China trade war caused the stock market to decline by 19.36%. Bitcoin fell by 37.22%.

In fact, since Bitcoin's price surpassed $1 in 2011, it has never outperformed the stock market during any market correction. But this time, I believe it will be an exception.

Critics may point out that performing in line with the stock market during a downturn does not equate to acting as a hedge asset, and that gold has outperformed Bitcoin in this correction. This is indeed true.

Some may also note that the stock market may not have hit bottom yet, or that it has slightly rebounded in the past few days.

But regardless, there is a key question that cannot be ignored: Bitcoin now appears to be extremely resilient. The world is in turmoil, yet Bitcoin's trading price remains above $80,000. If that doesn't convince you of its durability, I don't know what will.

Bitcoin is Growing Before Our Eyes

You may ask: why is this happening? I believe this is a sign of Bitcoin's maturation.

What makes Bitcoin unique is that its returns are driven by two forces that sometimes oppose each other.

• Risk Asset: On one hand, Bitcoin is a risk asset, an emerging, technology-driven investment that has historically brought high returns along with high volatility.
• Hedge Asset: On the other hand, Bitcoin can serve a role similar to gold, providing a hedge against macro policy missteps and fiat currency devaluation.

In the early days of Bitcoin, the "risk asset" attribute dominated. At that time, there were still doubts about Bitcoin's success, so when the market entered a "risk-off" mode, it suffered severe blows, falling more than stocks.

Now, as more and more companies and institutions buy Bitcoin, and more governments hold it as a strategic reserve, the role of "hedge asset" is becoming increasingly apparent. Investors view it as digital gold. The result is that during market downturns, its beta relative to stocks has decreased.

I cannot guarantee that this relationship will persist, nor can I be sure that the extraordinary resilience of Bitcoin we have recently seen will continue into the future. But so far, things look quite promising.

Bitcoin is growing into a macro asset, which is undoubtedly reassuring.

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