Author: DMD

Compiled by: Tim, PANews

Note: This article is not financial advice and is for informational reference only.

Over the past year, I have been sharing estimated yield data for staking PRIME tokens to earn PROMPT, which has often been referenced by the community. After actual verification following the TGE, I am pleased to find that these estimates have a high degree of accuracy:

The total number of PROMPT points estimated by the model = the amount of locked PRIME × duration × multiplier. Stakers will receive corresponding points based on their staking ratio.

When comparing the model with three different wallets, including my own, the estimated model's prediction of PROMPT received was about 20% higher than the actual amount. I believe this is mainly due to two reasons:

1. I originally expected that 40% of circulating PRIME would be staked, but the actual staking ratio reached 45%, which means the total number of points exceeded expectations, leading to a more pronounced dilution effect.

2. The total number of PROMPT points is still uncertain, as some stakers may release their stakes (which would reduce the total points) or continue to expand their stakes (which would increase the total points).

Additionally, yield estimates are highly dependent on the prices of PRIME and PROMPT. When the price of PRIME drops, the yield increases, incentivizing users to purchase more tokens and stake them. Of course, the yield still depends on the final valuation of PROMPT.

With more information being disclosed after the TGE, I believe the table below may provide the most accurate prediction of staking PRIME yields. This update has taken into account more PRIME being staked (by generating more PROMPT points) while maintaining a valuation of $500 million FDV. Additionally, a new column has been added to exclude the 28% token share airdropped to the community during the TGE:

In summary: Maximizing the staking of PRIME tokens will yield a 106% return in the form of PROMPT over the next 797 days.

It is clear from the table above that the yield opportunities have significantly decreased since June 2024. This decline is mainly reflected in two aspects: the multiplier effect continues to diminish, and the accumulation of PROMPT points over time means that the later participants enter, the lower the proportion of points they can obtain. This situation is particularly pronounced after the TGE, when 28% of the total supply has been released, and new tokens will continue to enter the circulating market weekly for users to claim.

Scenario Analysis: Staking PRIME vs. Purchasing PROMPT

The following analysis compares the two choices currently facing market participants: whether to directly purchase PROMPT on the open market or to buy PRIME and stake it (earning PROMPT in the process). For this, we will assume that PRIME will be maximally staked at a yield multiplier of 49.8 times, with a staking period of 797 days.

If you purchase $1,000 worth of PRIME tokens today, you will receive approximately 333 PRIME. According to the data in the table above, if these tokens are maximally staked, they could generate 333 × 39,690 points, which equals 13.2 million points.

Given the plan to distribute 400 million PROMPT tokens proportionally based on 1.8 trillion total points to all point stakers, the current 13.2 million points should yield approximately 2,944 PROMPT tokens. Considering that 28% of PROMPT has already been distributed, we will adjust this proportionally, meaning that the corresponding token output will drop to about 2,119 PROMPT. It should be noted that this calculation is not absolutely precise, as the actual PROMPT distribution mechanism depends on daily point accumulation, but the above method provides a clear and intuitive estimation framework for understanding yields, with a reasonable range of values.

The table below applies this number to the valuation scenarios for PRIME and PROMPT at the end of the staking period:

On the other hand, for those who directly purchase PROMPT tokens, the calculation is simpler. Ultimately, assuming the price of PROMPT is $0.50, investing $1,000 would yield 2,000 PROMPT tokens, which is fewer than the amount obtainable through purchasing and fully staking PRIME tokens.

Of course, at present, the advantage of directly purchasing PROMPT on the open market is that you can take profits whenever a local high point for PROMPT occurs.

Assuming that at the end of the staking activity, the valuation of PROMPT is $1 billion and the price of PRIME remains stable, the value of the tokens at the end of the staking period would reach $3,118 as described above.

However, considering the volatility of cryptocurrencies, PROMPT is likely to reach historical highs within the next two years (for example, achieving a fully diluted valuation of $4 billion, similar to the FDV level reached by the VIRTUAL project during the peak of the AI agent craze), before falling back to a more reasonable $1 billion FDV valuation range.

If you buy $1,000 worth of PROMPT tokens on the open market today and sell at the current local high point, you would gain $8,000, which is more than double the value obtained through staking PRIME.

Conclusion

Those looking to gain exposure to PROMPT, whether through fully staking PRIME or directly purchasing on the open market, should consider the following factors:

• What do you think the final value of PRIME and PROMPT will be at the end of the two-year staking period?
• What do you think the historical peak price of PROMPT will be in the next two years, and most importantly, can you sell at the peak?

Ultimately, this largely depends on individual circumstances. The undeniable fact is that most investors cannot successfully sell at market peaks. Meanwhile, as many PRIME holders have personally experienced, locking tokens for over two years only to see their value plummet by 90% is indeed a painful experience. Of course, given PRIME's leading position in the Web3 gaming space and the multiple positive catalysts coming this year, including the highly anticipated releases of the games "Colony" and "Sanctuary," I find it hard to imagine PRIME dropping more than 50% from its current price level.

Additionally, the team is already considering creating a new token economic adjustment mechanism to achieve deflation of the PRIME token and enhance value accumulation, which makes me confident that the downside potential for this gaming token has been effectively controlled at this stage.

Finally, I must state that the above content does not constitute financial advice, and I do not take responsibility for any errors in the calculations above.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。