A. Market Perspective
1. Macroeconomic Liquidity
Monetary liquidity is improving. The chaotic implementation of Trump's tariff policy, regardless of the final outcome, has quickly undermined market confidence in the U.S. economy and may continue to disrupt the market for the next three months. U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar have also returned to a downward spiral, with historic surges in U.S. stocks often occurring in the mid-stages of a bear market. The cryptocurrency market is following the severe fluctuations of U.S. stocks.
2. Overall Market Trends
Top 300 by Market Cap Gainers:
This week, BTC rebounded from oversold conditions, while small coins faced significant declines after being delisted. The market lacks a mainline focus.
Top 5 Gainers
Gains
Top 5 Losers
Losses
XCN
110%
BERA
40%
FARTCOIN
100%
EOS
20%
GAS
60%
MEW
20%
LAYER
40%
W
20%
UXLINK
30%
NEAR
20%
- BERA: The DeFi public chain has dropped to a new low, breaking through long-term support levels. Over the past week, on-chain stablecoins have decreased by $300 million.
- FARTCOIN: A meme coin on the SOL chain, it surged several times against the market trend, becoming the leader of this rebound.
- BABY: A leading staking project in the BTC ecosystem, its market cap returned to $800 million after listing, the last round of institutional investment. The staking track has been discredited.
3. On-Chain Data
Capital inflow into the BTC market has stagnated. Liquidity is rapidly contracting, with the market cap of altcoins depreciating from $1 trillion at the end of 2024 to $600 billion. This decline appears to be widespread, with all sectors experiencing significant depreciation.
Institutional funds have slightly net flowed out again, causing panic in the global market.
The market cap of stablecoins has slightly declined, with investors showing clear risk-averse sentiment.
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore, based on the total market cost, reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is greater than 6, it indicates a top range; when it is less than 2, it indicates a bottom range. MVRV has fallen below the critical level of 1, indicating that holders are generally in a state of loss. The current indicator is 1.6, close to the bottom range.
4. Futures Market
Futures funding rate: This week, the rate is low at 0.00%. A rate of 0.05-0.1% indicates a high level of long leverage, suggesting a short-term market top; a rate of -0.1-0% indicates a high level of short leverage, suggesting a short-term market bottom.
Futures open interest: This week, BTC open interest continues to decline, with market leaders exiting.
Futures long-short ratio: 1.9, indicating market sentiment is greedy. Retail sentiment often serves as a contrarian indicator; below 0.7 indicates fear, while above 2.0 indicates greed. The long-short ratio data is highly volatile, reducing its reference significance.
5. Spot Market
BTC experienced severe fluctuations this week, while altcoins lack new narratives. The ongoing uncertainty of the U.S. tariff system has intensified pressure on global financial markets. This weakness has spread to almost all asset classes, and the cryptocurrency market is also deeply mired in a bear market.
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