Source: Cointelegraph Original: "{title}"

Bitcoin spot ETFs are under significant pressure amid the ongoing uncertainty of the global trade war. According to Farside Investors, the total net outflow of these ETFs reached $595 million from March 28 to April 8. Notably, even after the U.S. suspended most import tariffs on April 9, an additional net outflow of $127 million was recorded on that day.

This phenomenon has left traders puzzled: why did Bitcoin surge to $82,000 on April 9 without boosting ETF investor confidence? What are the underlying reasons for the continued capital outflow?

Net inflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Source: Farside Investors

Bitcoin spot ETFs are facing immense pressure due to the uncertainty caused by the ongoing global trade war. Farside Investors data shows that the total net outflow of these ETFs reached $595 million from March 28 to April 8. It is noteworthy that even after the U.S. temporarily lifted most import tariffs on April 9, these funds still recorded an additional net outflow of $127 million.

This situation has led traders to question: why is there a continuous outflow of funds? Why did Bitcoin rise to $82,000 on April 9 without boosting ETF investor confidence?

Corporate credit risk may be driving Bitcoin's capital outflow

The rising likelihood of an economic recession is weakening market investment willingness. "It is evident that credit liquidity is drying up," said Michael Weidner, co-head of global fixed income at Lazard Asset Management, to Reuters. Essentially, investors are turning to safe assets like government bonds and cash, a trend that could ultimately trigger credit tightening.

Credit tightening refers to a sharp decline in the availability of loans, leading to reduced corporate investment and consumer spending. Even if U.S. Treasury yields remain stable, an increase in borrowing risk perception could independently trigger a contraction in credit supply.

RW Baird strategist Ross Mayfield pointed out that even if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates to stabilize the turbulent market, the relief for corporations may only be temporary. He stated, "In an inflationary environment caused by tariffs, both investment-grade and high-yield corporate borrowers will be pressured by rising debt costs." Despite the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remaining flat, demand for corporate bonds remains weak.

ICE U.S. Bank Company Index option adjusted spreads. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

Dan Krieter, head of fixed income strategy at BMO Capital Markets, told Reuters that corporate bond spreads have seen the largest weekly widening since the regional banking crisis in March 2023. Corporate bond spreads measure the interest rate difference between corporate bonds and government bonds, reflecting the additional risk investors take on when lending to corporations.

Trade war becomes the focus, suppressing Bitcoin investment interest

Investors remain concerned that even if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, it may not be enough to revive economic confidence. This sentiment also explains why the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.8% year-on-year in March (the smallest increase in four years) but failed to positively impact the stock market. "This will be the last 'clean' data we see before tariffs push inflation higher," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, to Yahoo Finance.

Traders seem to be waiting for stability in the corporate bond market before regaining confidence in Bitcoin ETF inflows. As long as recession risks remain high, investors may continue to favor safer assets like government bonds and cash. Breaking this correlation will require a shift in the market's perception of Bitcoin's fixed monetary policy and censorship-resistant characteristics. However, the potential catalysts for such a change remain unclear and may take months or even years.

Related: Stablecoin adoption grows due to new U.S. legislation and Japan's open attitude

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any legal or investment advice. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Cointelegraph.

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