CPI Data Looks Good, But Economic Contraction Signs Emerge

The latest U.S. CPI annual rate is below expectations, indicating effective inflation control, but the negative monthly rate suggests the economy is beginning to contract, which is not an ideal signal. The Federal Reserve's pursuit of a 2% inflation target is also due to this, aiming to prevent deflation and stabilize growth.

Tariff Suspension is Just a Breather, Not a Reversal Signal

Although the 10% base tariff on China has been suspended for 90 days, its impact remains heavy. Currently, the U.S. tariff level is four times the average for 2024, and the Federal Reserve is still in a tightening cycle, with the market lacking fundamental support for a trend reversal.

Bitcoin Investor Sentiment Remains Stable, On-Chain Data Shows No Signs of Panic

Although BTC's price has retreated today, on-chain data shows that high-level holdings remain strong. The short-term trading focus is on recent investors, while older users, early holders, and even those at a loss have not shown significant selling pressure.

The key for the future market still lies in when monetary policy will return to easing and whether the economy can avoid a deep recession, which will determine whether Bitcoin transitions from a rebound to a true reversal trend.

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