I am glad that many friends have realized that the inflation in March does not include the 10% basic tariff from April. This is a good thing, indicating that everyone is paying attention to tariffs. However, it should be noted that the inflation data for March included the 20% additional tariffs on China, so the deflation shown in this data represents the economic slowdown that occurred after the additional tariffs were imposed on China.

By May, we see the inflation data for April, which already includes the 10% basic tariffs from other countries as well as the 145% tariffs from China. This could lead to a more pronounced monthly deflation in earnings because prices are too high, resulting in reduced purchases by consumers, which also indicates an economic downturn. Therefore, the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in June, but such a rate cut is not necessarily a positive sign.

Just like today's drop in inflation brings about a decline in risk markets, as the expectation is that the economy will enter a recession.

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