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Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis on April 10, 2025
Interpretation of Macroeconomic and Policy Focus
1. U.S. Stocks Surge: Nasdaq Rises 12.16% in a Day, MicroStrategy Soars 26%
On April 9, 2025, the three major U.S. stock indices surged collectively, with the Nasdaq Composite Index rising 12.16% in a single day, marking the largest single-day increase since 2001, closing at 17,124.97 points; the S&P 500 index rose 9.52%, and the Dow Jones index increased by 7.87%. Large tech stocks performed particularly well: Tesla (+22%), Nvidia (+18%), and Apple (+15%) led the gains. Meanwhile, Bitcoin holder MicroStrategy saw its stock price soar 26% in one day, closely linked to the rebound in Bitcoin prices. Previously, MicroStrategy's stock price fluctuated sharply due to unrealized losses from Bitcoin holdings, but the recent recovery in market risk appetite has driven a rapid recovery in its stock price.
2. Panic Index Plummets and Market Sentiment Reverses
With the rebound in U.S. stocks, the Panic Index (VIX) fell sharply from 57 to 33, marking the largest single-day drop in nearly four years. This change reflects the market's digestion of short-term risks: the tariff policy announced by the Trump administration has entered a 90-day buffer period, and investors expect that policy uncertainty will temporarily ease during this time, providing breathing room for risk assets. Additionally, the first-quarter GDP data did not show significant deterioration, providing a foundation for the market's rebound.
3. Federal Reserve Policy Stance: Rate Cut Threshold Not Yet Met
The minutes from the March meeting indicated that the Federal Reserve clearly stated, "The pace of inflation decline is insufficient to support a rate cut," unless there are signs of soaring unemployment or economic recession. Although some officials believe a 50 basis point rate cut may occur within the year, the core disagreement lies in the assessment of inflation resilience. Currently, the Federal Reserve is more inclined to maintain high interest rates to observe the transmission effects of tariffs, energy prices, and other variables on inflation.
Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies for the Cryptocurrency Market
1. Bitcoin: Breaks Long-Term Downtrend Line, Resistance and Support Levels Confirmed
On April 10, Bitcoin's price broke through the long-term downtrend line, with key resistance and support levels as follows:
Resistance: First resistance at $84,500 (coinciding with the 200-day moving average and previous highs), second resistance at $83,500;
Support: Short-term support at $82,000, strong support at $81,100 (60-day moving average).
The technical indicators show that the 1-hour level has entered the overbought zone, and caution is advised regarding the risk of a pullback. If the price can consolidate above $82,000, it is expected to solidify the bottom and further advance.
Swing Trading Suggestions:
Long: Wait for a pullback to the $80,700-$81,100 range to enter with a light position, targeting $83,500-$84,500;
Short: Not recommended at this time; need to observe the breakout situation at $84,500.
2. Ethereum: Double Bottom Pattern and MA10 Moving Average Pressure
The daily chart of Ethereum has formed a short-term double bottom pattern around $1,400, but faces strong resistance at the MA10 moving average (at $1,700). The price is oscillating near $1,615 (MA120 moving average), and if it fails to break through $1,650, it may retest the $1,570-$1,500 support.
Trading Suggestions:
Short: Enter at $1,620, add to the position on a rebound to $1,650, targeting $1,500;
Long: In sync with Bitcoin, focus on a rebound space of $50-$80.
Conclusion: Rebound, Not Reversal; Await Trend Confirmation
Although market sentiment has warmed in the short term, there are no signs of a trend reversal at the macro level:
Tariff Transmission: Inflation pressure may rise again after June;
Federal Reserve Stance: More evidence of economic weakness is needed for a rate cut;
Technical Pressure: Effective breakouts are needed at the $84,500 resistance for Bitcoin and the $1,700 moving average for Ethereum.
Investors are advised to remain cautious, using pullbacks to gradually position themselves and avoid chasing highs.
This article is independently written by the Coin Victory Group. Friends in need of current strategies and solutions can find the Coin Victory Group online. Recently, the market has been primarily characterized by fluctuations, accompanied by intermittent spikes. Therefore, when making trades, remember to control profit-taking and stop-loss effectively. In the future, when facing significant market data, the Coin Victory Group will also organize live broadcasts across the internet. Those interested can find the Coin Victory Group online and contact me for the link. This is mainly aimed at spot and contract trading for BTC/ETH/ETC/LTC/EOS/BSV/ATOM/XRP/BCH/LINK/TRX/DOT. Our expertise includes mobile locking strategies centered around high and low support and resistance for short-term swings, medium to long-term trend trades, daily extreme pullbacks, weekly K-top predictions, and monthly head predictions.
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