Source: Cointelegraph Original: "{title}"
Bitcoin experienced a sharp rebound following U.S. President Trump's announcement to suspend tariffs on non-retaliatory countries, reigniting bullish sentiment and raising hopes for Bitcoin to break through $100,000.
On April 9, BTC/USD rose by about 9%, nearly erasing all losses from earlier in the week, and tested $83,000 again. This move brought the trading pair closer to validating the descending wedge pattern formed on the daily chart since December 2024.
The descending wedge pattern refers to a price trend that forms within a range defined by two converging downward trend lines.
Ideally, when the price decisively breaks above the upper trend line, the pattern is completed, and the upward movement can reach the maximum distance between the upper and lower trend lines.
BTC/USD daily price chart showing the formation of the descending wedge breakout. Source: TradingView
As of April 9, Bitcoin's price was still operating within the descending wedge range and was aiming to break above the upper trend line located around $83,000. If the breakout is confirmed, Bitcoin's main upward target could approach $100,000 by June.
Conversely, if the price encounters rejection at the upper trend line, it may increase the likelihood of Bitcoin further retracing within the wedge range, potentially sliding down to near the $71,100 peak.
Source: Merlijn The Trader
If Bitcoin breaks out after testing the $71,100 level, the most conservative upward target for BTC could be as high as $91,500.
On-chain data supports the $100,000 Bitcoin outlook
Bitcoin's rebound coincided with a test of a key on-chain support range, specifically between $65,000 and $71,000, further strengthening the bullish outlook for Bitcoin to reach $100,000.
Notably, the $65,000 to $71,000 range is based on two important Bitcoin indicators—active realized price ($71,000) and the real market average ($65,000).
Bitcoin short-term on-chain cost benchmark range. Source: Glassnode
These indicators estimate the average price at which current active investors purchased Bitcoin. They exclude coins that have been inactive for a long time or are likely lost, thus reflecting the cost basis of investors still participating in the market relatively accurately.
According to Glassnode analysts, historically, Bitcoin has traded above this range about half the time and below it the other half, making it a good indicator for assessing whether market sentiment is positive or negative.
"We currently have reached a consensus among multiple on-chain price models, highlighting the $65,000 to $71,000 range as a key area for bulls to establish long-term support," they wrote in a recent weekly analysis, adding, "If the price significantly falls below this range, the vast majority of active investors' positions will be in a loss, which could subsequently have a negative impact on overall market sentiment."
The worst-case scenario for Bitcoin is a drop to $50,000
Falling below the $65,000-$71,000 range could diminish the likelihood of Bitcoin recently breaking through $100,000. Such a drop would also lead to the price falling below its 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; red wavy line).
BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView
The 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA)—close to $77,760 as of April 9—has historically acted as dynamic support during bull markets and resistance during bear markets, making it a key trend-defining level.
Losing this support could create space for the price to retrace to the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA; blue wavy line), around $50,000. Historically, falling below the 50-week EMA has often led to similar declines, particularly during the bear market cycles of 2021-2022 and 2019-2020.
On the other hand, if Bitcoin rebounds, it will increase the likelihood of testing $100,000.
Related: Bitcoin price surges to $83,500, have professional Bitcoin traders turned bullish?
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading operations carry risks, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.
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