If you have a dream, you must persist in defending it. Many people tell you it's impossible, simply because they themselves cannot achieve it. Let's accept both the good and the bad, and then silently continue living. Showing off in front of others is a way to learn to forget; feeling melancholy behind closed doors is because we cannot learn to disguise ourselves. In fact, we are all just lonely children, yearning for someone to care, longing for someone to love, and hoping that the people around us will never say goodbye.
Yesterday's market was relatively friendly to us, showing a trend similar to our predictions. In terms of our operations, it was also a day of gains. After testing the support level around 74500 again, there was a certain degree of rebound in the afternoon. Our operational strategy at that time was to go long at low levels, choosing to participate around 76500, and the market provided an entry point. The real upward breakthrough in the market was influenced by news regarding tariff policies. In the early hours, Trump announced that the tariff policy would be delayed by 90 days for countries other than China that had not implemented retaliatory tariffs. As soon as the news broke, global markets surged last night, and Bitcoin also saw a significant rise, with the peak reaching above 83000. Our real-time operation yesterday was to go long near 76500, and after a quick rise, we took profits around 81500, gaining a space of 5000 points. We then opened a light short position near 81500, planning to add to the position later. However, it got too late, and I was too tired to stay awake, resulting in not adding to the position afterward. Currently, this short position is still held, and there is some loss. For those who read the article analysis, since our earlier plan was to short around 81000, some friends exited with stop losses, while others contacted us to short around 82000, which they are still holding. Regardless, after the profits from the long position yesterday, the short position is still held. If it is a light position, then we will wait for the next arrangements, and we will also provide updates in our social circle.
The minutes from the Federal Reserve's March meeting revealed a harsh reality—decision-makers almost unanimously believe that the U.S. economy is deeply mired in the dual quagmire of high inflation and slowing growth. Faced with this "dilemma," some officials warned that painful trade-offs may have to be made in the future. This meeting coincided with the Trump administration's announcement of preliminary tariff plans, increasing policy uncertainty and forcing the Fed to adopt a "wait-and-see" strategy: it may maintain high interest rates for a long time due to stubborn inflation, or it may urgently cut rates due to an economic slowdown. Today, we are paying attention to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for more information.
On the chart, there are slight changes on the daily line. The K-line formed a double bottom in the previous few trading sessions, and the two "long legs" are somewhat obvious. Additionally, influenced by the intraday rise, the coin price broke through the short-term moving average MA7 resistance and returned to the intersection area of the mid-term moving averages. The moving average system shows a certain upward turn, while the MACD remains in a bearish cycle, with some contraction in the volume bars. The time cycle still has some buffer space, making it impossible to confirm whether we are about to enter a bullish cycle. The RSI's oversold expectations have eased, moving upward to the midline area. In terms of trading volume, due to the alleviation of tariff policies, market trading has improved, and buying sentiment is good, mainly reflected in short-term speculators increasing their positions.
On the four-hour level, the coin price has returned to the previous main fluctuation range, forming a "W shape" structurally. Driven by substantial news, the market has begun a retaliatory rebound. The second bottom has been confirmed, reaching the midline of the four-hour downtrend channel. The Asian session saw a contraction in volume and fluctuations. After the short squeeze ended, the market welcomed a reversal, but due to the news-driven market, the sustainability is generally poor. Additionally, with CPI data to be released tonight, most short-term speculators will likely choose to take profits and observe, so there won't be significant fluctuations during the day session, with the focus on the U.S. session.
In terms of liquidity, the current short positions are mainly concentrated around 85000. Due to the current emotional market sentiment, leveraging tonight's CPI data, it is very likely to complete a round of clearing the upper short liquidity. The CPI data will have the most direct impact on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations for this year.
In terms of operations, we need to look at the actual market trends. Personally, I am currently inclined towards a rise followed by a fall, but I am uncertain whether there will be an opportunity to go long. For the short position I currently hold, if there is a pullback opportunity, I can exit first and then participate in a long position around 80000, adding to the position at 79000, with a stop loss at 78300 and a target of 84000-85000. If the market rises first, 85500 will serve as a high short position, with an addition around 86500, a stop loss at 87300, and no specific target set. If there are any other changes in the market due to news, we will arrange operations in real-time.
Yesterday, I went long on Ethereum at 1450, targeting a take profit at 1650, and both positions were successfully reached. Currently, for the long position, you can choose to participate around 1550, with a target of 1700-1750, and we will plan to short after reaching that target.
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and the market changes in real-time. The information may be delayed, and strategies may not be timely. Specific operations should follow real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for discussions on the market.】
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