Tonight at 8:30 PM Beijing time, the CPI data for March in the United States will be released. From the current perspective, this data is not very significant, as it does not include the additional tariffs of 20% on China, let alone the 10% base tariff that only started to take effect on April 2.

However, this CPI data can still be seen as a reference before and after the full implementation of the new tariffs. According to market expectations, the previous CPI was 2.8%, and the market expects it to be 2.6%. This indicates that even with the 20% tariff increase on China, inflation in the U.S. is still on a downward trend. This serves as the best countermeasure for the Federal Reserve; if the CPI data rises after the full implementation of the new tariffs, they can shift the blame onto Trump.

From the current market predictions, broad inflation is declining, with both annual and monthly rates decreasing. The annual rate of core inflation is also declining, while the monthly rate has seen a slight increase. Additionally, attention should be paid to the inflation data for used cars, rent, and services; lower inflation data is certainly better. However, the current impact is indeed minimal.

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