Source: Cointelegraph Original: "{title}"
The founder of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, billionaire investor Ray Dalio, recently warned that the market is currently focusing on tariff issues while overlooking a more significant and historically meaningful deep change—namely, the decline of the United States and the rise of China.
In Dalio's view, this change is part of a "once-in-a-lifetime" systemic collapse that the world is facing today, encompassing a comprehensive restructuring of the global monetary system, political order, and geopolitical landscape.
On Monday (April 7), Dalio published an article titled "Don't Misunderstand That Everything Happening Now Is Mainly Due to Tariffs" on LinkedIn, in which he stated: "The world is currently experiencing a typical, cyclical major collapse involving a comprehensive breakdown of the global monetary system, political structure, and geopolitical landscape. A collapse of this scale is usually encountered only once in a lifetime, but historically, similar crises have occurred multiple times under unsustainable conditions."
He pointed out five major areas of disruption:
With excessive existing debt, rapid debt growth, and the economy severely reliant on this unsustainable high debt, the global monetary/economic order is experiencing a collapse.
Domestic political order is weakening under increasing inequality, polarization, and institutional deadlock.
The international geopolitical order is shifting from U.S.-led multilateralism to a fragmented, power-based system.
Natural events such as climate incidents and pandemics are becoming increasingly economically destructive.
Technological changes, especially artificial intelligence (AI), will reshape the economy, labor, markets, and the dynamics of power between nations.
Dalio warned that many of the policies and changes we are witnessing today, such as Trump's radical trade stance, are not isolated events but rather the result of deeper structural issues. He also believes that the current accumulation of debt in the U.S. is unsustainable, and the geopolitical relationship between the U.S. and China may drive both countries to adopt more extreme policy measures, including capital controls and trade restrictions.
"We are in the early stages of the (monetary order) change process."
On April 8, Dalio also shared his insights on the latest tariffs in an interview with CNBC. Dalio believes that tariffs are a response to the imbalanced global system, but they are merely a surface issue. Their direct impact will be: rising costs, declining corporate revenues, and difficulties in capital acquisition. From a broader perspective, tariffs are disrupting global supply chains, increasing friction in global production, and affecting global production efficiency.
In addition to addressing the so-called "trade deficit" issue, the deeper reason for the new tariff policy is that Trump has been pushing for the return of manufacturing. Dalio acknowledged the hollowing out of U.S. manufacturing in his interview with CNBC but questioned the feasibility of resolving it in the short term. The demographic structure and education level in the U.S. limit the speed and quality of manufacturing's return.
Related: As the trade war intensifies, does Bitcoin (BTC) become stronger? Bitwise CIO makes the latest judgment.
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