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Cryptocurrency Market Strategy Analysis Report for April 9, 2025
1. Macroeconomic Market Background and Nasdaq Correlation Analysis
Significant Correction in U.S. Stocks Triggers Chain Reaction
On April 9, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively fell, with the Nasdaq Composite Index down 2.15%, the S&P 500 down 1.57%, and the Dow Jones down 0.84%. This decline is closely related to concerns about an economic recession triggered by the Trump administration's tariff policies. Fitch noted that "tariffs significantly increase the risk of a U.S. economic recession," leading to a sharp contraction in market risk appetite. Notably, the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index remains high at 42%, indicating significant short-term linkage effects, with the pressure from tech stock sell-offs potentially transmitting to the cryptocurrency market.
Spread of Panic Sentiment and Capital Flow
The cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index is at 30, indicating a "fear" zone. On-chain data shows that Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume has dropped to $2.34 billion (about a 9% decrease from the previous day), and the Ethereum/BTC trading pair has fallen to 0.057, reflecting insufficient market confidence in altcoins. Meanwhile, U.S. bank clients net bought $8 billion during the stock sell-off, indicating that traditional capital has not significantly flowed into the crypto market for hedging.
2. Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis and Trading Strategy
Validation of Key Support Levels and Trend Judgment
Effectiveness of the weekly MA60 support ($74,500): Historical data shows that MA60 successfully blocked price declines in June 2024 and January 2025. The current price is approaching this support zone ($74,300-$74,800). If the daily close falls below this level, it may trigger algorithmic trading sell-offs, targeting a drop to $70,000-$72,000.
Risk of a Downward Continuation Pattern: The daily price has consistently closed below MA256 (approximately $78,000), with MACD bearish momentum increasing. The RSI (4-hour) is oversold but shows no divergence; a rebound requires breaking above $77,000 to alleviate downward pressure.
Trading Strategy
Short Position Opportunity: Short at $78,000 (daily MA256 resistance), add to the position at $78,800, targeting $76,000-$77,000, with a stop loss set above $80,000.
Long Position Setup: If the $74,300-$74,800 support holds, consider a light long position, targeting a rebound to $76,000-$77,000 (2,000-3,000 points), with a stop loss at $73,500.
3. Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis and Trading Strategy
Resistance Zone and Market Sentiment
$1,600-$1,640 Resistance Zone: Since March 2025, ETH has attempted to break through this area three times, all of which have failed. The derivatives market shows no bullish confidence (implied volatility of options has decreased). If it cannot break through, it may drop to $1,400 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement level).
On-chain data warning: Whale addresses are reducing their ETH holdings (selling 612 coins in a single day), and net inflows to exchanges are increasing, intensifying short-term selling pressure.
Trading Strategy
Short Position Opportunity: Short near $1,500, add to the position at $1,535 (4-hour MA120), targeting $1,450-$1,400, with a stop loss set above $1,560.
Long Position Following BTC Correlation: If BTC holds the $74,500 support, ETH can take a short-term long position in the $1,450-$1,480 range, targeting a rebound of 50-80 points, with a stop loss at $1,430.
4. Risk Warning and Cross-Market Impact
Oil and Exchange Rate Volatility
International oil prices have plummeted (U.S. oil down 4.8% to $58.15), and the offshore RMB has fallen below 7.42, which may trigger liquidity tightening and amplify cryptocurrency volatility.
Policy Uncertainty
Federal Reserve official Daly stated that "policy is in a good state," but JPMorgan's model shows a 79% probability of a U.S. economic recession. If risk assets further collapse, the crypto market may face a "de-leveraging" shock.
5. Conclusion and Today's Key Events
Core Logic: Bearish dominance in technical analysis, increasing macro risks, with a focus on shorting during rebounds and cautious bottom-fishing.
Key Events:
21:30 U.S. March CPI data (if above expectations, may strengthen tightening expectations)
U.S.-Russia-Istanbul negotiations (potential geopolitical risk disturbances)
This article is independently written by the Coin Victory Group. Friends in need of current price strategies and solutions can find the Coin Victory Group online. Recently, the market has been primarily characterized by fluctuations, accompanied by intermittent spikes. Therefore, when making trades, please remember to control your take-profit and stop-loss levels. In the future, when facing significant market data, the Coin Victory Group will also organize live broadcasts across the internet. Those interested can find the Coin Victory Group online and contact me for the link. The focus is on spot and contract trading for BTC/ETH/ETC/LTC/EOS/BSV/ATOM/XRP/BCH/LINK/TRX/DOT. Our expertise includes mobile locking strategies around high and low support and resistance for short-term fluctuations, medium to long-term trend trades, daily extreme pullbacks, weekly K-top predictions, and monthly head predictions.
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