On Tuesday, the Trump administration announced tariffs of up to 104% on certain Chinese goods, far exceeding market expectations, triggering severe fluctuations in global markets.

U.S. stocks turned lower, with the Nasdaq and S&P giving back gains, and the VIX approaching 50 again; the cryptocurrency market also fell in tandem, with $BTC once again dropping below $77,000, and market risk aversion quickly intensified. More critically, whether China will initiate countermeasures within the next 24 hours will determine whether this wave of sentiment continues to deteriorate.

While the market speculates whether the final version of the tariffs on April 9 will "slightly ease," the White House's stance is clear: unless it helps with employment and the deficit, it will not consider lifting any established tariffs. Against this backdrop, the expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2025 has been further raised from 4 times to 5 times, but this "easing" is essentially not good news; rather, it is a market bet on a future economic recession.

From the Federal Reserve's behavioral logic, unless inflation significantly declines, even "defensive rate cuts" will be difficult to implement quickly. The real turning point may come when the U.S. GDP data is released at the end of April.

In the cryptocurrency market, BTC's turnover rate decreased today. URPD data shows that even though the price fell below $77,000, investors in the $93,000 to $98,000 range have hardly reduced their positions, indicating that the current selling pressure does not come from high-position holders, and there has been no panic selling at the top. The on-chain structure remains relatively healthy; as long as subsequent policies do not become frequent and erratic, BTC and risk markets may still have room for phased recovery.

However, if we really enter a recession, the price pressure may not just be a short-term volatility issue.

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