Source: Cointelegraph Original: "{title}"
Analysts suggest that Bitcoin's price could drop to $70,000 in the next ten days, as a Bitcoin pricing model indicates that the U.S.-led trade war may disrupt investor sentiment towards risk assets.
In his latest analysis on X, network economist Timothy Peterson warned that Bitcoin could return to its historical high of 2021.
With the impact of "higher than expected" U.S. trade tariffs, expectations for Bitcoin's price continue to deteriorate.
For Peterson, the current outlook includes an unpleasant trip down memory lane.
"Will Bitcoin drop to $70,000 in 10 days?" he questioned.
The accompanying chart compares Bitcoin's bear market and includes Peterson's Lowest Price Forecast (LPF) indicator—a historically accurate measure of long-term Bitcoin price bottoms.
"While this chart is not a prediction, it does provide data-based expectations about what Bitcoin might do," he continued.
"If it continues to operate within the 75th percentile bear market range, then $70,000 will be the actual bottom."
Bitcoin bear market compared to LPF data. Source: Timothy Peterson/X
Peterson noted that this theory aligns with current LPF data, which indicated last month that Bitcoin's price against the dollar is 95% likely to find support at the 2021 high.
Previously, this indicator successfully provided a $10,000 price floor in mid-2020, after which Bitcoin has never dropped below that price again.
Moving forward, Peterson revealed probabilities for April, showing that Bitcoin's price expectations are in a state of flux.
"Bitcoin has a 75% chance of having a positive month to a 75% chance of having a negative month in just two days," he summarized, along with another exclusive chart.
April Bitcoin price expectations. Source: Timothy Peterson/X
Related: Bitcoin sales "significantly below" cycle top at $109,000 historical high—Glassnode
The bearish outlook from Peterson's model is far from the only bearish warning that has emerged this week.
As on-chain analytics firm Glassnode pointed out, many traders are trying to protect themselves from further turmoil in the crypto market.
"Bearish options are trading at higher prices than bullish options, indicating a surge in demand for downside protection. This skew is most pronounced in the short term—a level of fear not seen since Bitcoin was at $20,000 in mid-2023," it revealed in an X post on April 4.
Bitcoin options delta skew. Source: Glassnode/X
Glassnode still acknowledged that despite the pressure, the current price performance does not constitute the kind of post-tariff panic collapse seen in stocks.
"Nevertheless, Bitcoin has not collapsed like stocks in the recent tariff headlines. This dislocation—fear rising without a price collapse—makes the current options market setup particularly noteworthy," it continued.
"This skew typically appears when positioning is one-sided and fear is high. In short: panic escalates, but prices hold. This is often what a bottom looks like."
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