If you're a long-term investor, the market has reached a point where I think it's worthwhile to dip toes back in.

You are forced to accept short-term headwinds and volatility, with a risk that the market deteriorates further or (at minimum) chops around these levels for the next 6-12 months.

Based on studies that I recently published on Cubic Analytics, we could see several years before making new all-time highs, particularly if a recession does materialize (which I still view as low probability).

Either way, it's something to be cognizant of.

As investors, we can't escape risk... but what we can do is understand risk(s) and get comfortable with them before making allocation decisions, then attempt to control risk.

The market still has a lot of pressure, which means that we should experience significant moves (in both direction) and that there's a lot of overhead supply.

In other words, a lower high is more likely than not... until we have evidence of producing a higher low... which we don't have (yet).

If you're a short-term trader, you have two options here:

1. Bet on a reversal of the downtrend

2. Wait for the reversal, then short it

Bear market setups are just the inverse of bull market setups.

In bull markets, my favorite setups are EMA & AVWAP supports and "breakout, retest, rebound" setups.

In bear markets, my favorite setups are EMA & AVWAP resistance and "breakdown, retest, rejection" setups.

So, right now, short-term trend followers should only be focused on waiting for EMA undercuts (5, 8 13, 21-day) and structural resistance to enter shorts.

That's my $0.02.

Happy investing/trading.

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