"Lottery-style" mining, why do independent miners frequently win block rewards?

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PANews
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8 days ago

Author: Mat Di Salvo, Decrypt

Translated by: Feilx, PANews

Last week, another Bitcoin miner broke the norm by independently processing a block and receiving a reward of 3.125 Bitcoins. At that time, the reward (including transaction fees) was $259,637. In recent months, there have been multiple instances of independent miners mining Bitcoin blocks.

Is it just luck for the miners? Is independent mining becoming more common? Can an average person connect an amateur mining machine and achieve success with minimal resources compared to publicly traded miners?

The answers vary. The term "independent miner" is used to describe a range of miners, from hobbyists to groups that prefer to operate discreetly. Their success rate is increasing, but not significantly—and the total number is unlikely to surge dramatically.

Scott Norris, CEO of independent Bitcoin miner Optiminer, stated that mining without the support of large mining pools "is still like playing the lottery."

In 2022, independent miners using Solo CKPool (a service that allows anonymous miners to mine without running their own full Bitcoin node) processed 7 blocks. In 2023, this number jumped to 12 blocks. By 2024, it reached 16 blocks.

However, the blocks mined using Solo CKPool do not necessarily mean that someone is mining Bitcoin alone in their bedroom with a very low hash rate. Some in the crypto community have suggested this, but it is incorrect.

The mining pool industry is dominated by a few large companies—such as Foundry, AntPool, and F2Pool. Miners connect to pools, share resources, and distribute rewards. With services like Solo CKPool, miners receive rewards once they find a block and keep almost all of the rewards.

As the Bitcoin network evolves, mining requires more power and resources, and mining is often operated as a business by publicly traded companies. Some Bitcoin enthusiasts believe this is detrimental to Bitcoin, as the Bitcoin network should be as decentralized as possible.

Amateur mining devices like Bitaxe and FutureBit Apollo, priced between $200 and $500, have now become favorites among "Bitcoin extremists." In January of this year, a FutureBit Apollo processed a block, thanks to a nonprofit organization donating hash rate from other machines to this one.

At that time, anonymous Bitcoin miner Econoalchemist stated on the X platform that their idea was to "dismantle the proprietary mining empires and allow everyone to access Bitcoin and free technology."

Although the likelihood of this vision being realized is low, the rise of amateur miners in recent months may be driving a noticeable increase in the success rate of individual mining.

Econoalchemist stated, "Every now and then, and increasingly frequently, a Bitaxe or similar small mining device independently processes a block and quietly runs in someone's home."

Scott Norris of Optiminer pointed out that businesses can process blocks without large mining pools by having a significant amount of hash rate.

Even Solo Satoshi, based in Houston, Texas, which sells mining equipment like Bitaxe Gamma, states on its website that the chance of mining a block daily with a $180 Bitaxe machine with a hash rate of 1.2 TH/s is 0.00068390%.

However, Matt Howard, the founder of Solo Satoshi, stated that investing in independent mining is not necessarily for profit. "The main goal is to further decentralize. Finding a block and receiving Bitcoin rewards is an added benefit. For Bitcoin extremists, they understand that mining needs to be decentralized."

Related: In the context of global relaxation of BTC mining regulations, can one still participate in mining?

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