Author: Alex Xu, Mint Ventures

Last week, at 4 PM Eastern Time on April 2 (after the U.S. stock market closed), Trump announced his "reciprocal tariff" plan.

He calculated the new "reciprocal" tariff rate by taking the trade surplus of major trading partners with the U.S. from last year, dividing it by their total goods exports, and then dividing by two.

What is the logic behind this? It doesn't matter.

They just need an excuse to start a war.

Subsequently, global markets, including crypto assets, were thrown into turmoil.

Currently, the market's expectations regarding Trump's tariff plan are chaotic: is the imposition of tariffs a long-term national policy of the Trump team, or is it a negotiation strategy to gain leverage against negotiating partners (trading partners, large enterprises)?

If it is the former, then perhaps, as many have said, this will change the global trade landscape, and the U.S. is heading towards isolationism, which would clearly be detrimental to the global economy in the long run.

But if it is the latter, then perhaps the moment the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" were announced on April 2 marks the peak of fear in this round of trade war, and the subsequent major developments will still depend on the progress of negotiations, gradually reaching a consensus between the U.S. and bilateral/multilateral partners, leading to a gradual easing of market panic and a return of asset prices to their appropriate levels.

Although Trump previously promoted tariffs as a form of "national policy" during his campaign and after taking office, using tariffs to force the return of manufacturing is also a political commitment to the Rust Belt and lower-income voters, and his stance has been exceptionally firm.

However, I still tend to believe that tariffs are merely his bargaining chips, and his ultimate goal in negotiations is to achieve enough political achievements for himself, which may include:

• More overseas orders: other countries purchasing more American goods (food, energy, weapons, passenger planes)

• More domestic job opportunities: large enterprises investing in and building factories in the U.S. (like TSMC)

• Reasonable encirclement of competitors: forcing countries that are trying to sit on the fence to unite with him, further encircling China (Vietnam and South Korea have already announced high tariffs on steel exports to China)

In addition, the asset crashes and recession expectations caused by tariff disruptions have also put immense pressure on Powell, who is unable to lower interest rates through executive power. What about the economy and stock market on the brink of collapse?

Therefore, as long as he and his group can withstand the current immense pressure, when seemingly illogical tariff demands gradually transform into results during negotiations, his reputation will gradually improve.

These results will translate into energy for further expanding his political influence, becoming a reason for further consolidation of power, and helping the Republican Party gain an advantage in next year's midterm elections.

Is there a possibility that Trump really sees tariffs as a long-term national policy, believing that tariffs can force the return of manufacturing and change the current hollowing out of American manufacturing, providing more job opportunities?

But the problem is that the current space and time do not allow for it. The midterm elections for both houses are next year, and the economic recession, stock market crash, and asset inflation caused by long-term high tariffs will inevitably lead to the Republican Party losing its currently slim advantage in the House of Representatives (and possibly the Senate), making Trump a "lame duck president" in the remaining two years of his term, with policies becoming even harder to implement.

There is currently not enough time and space for him to pursue such a long-term national policy. By the time the stock market and tokens are struggling next year, he won't even be able to hold on in the short term, let alone talk about a long-term national policy.

So this possibility is still relatively small.

In fact, looking at the current situation, less than a week after the introduction of reciprocal tariffs, with contacts with multiple countries, the Trump team has already begun to soften its stance on tariffs after confirming actual negotiation benefits.

For example, today, Kevin Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council, stated: "Currently, more than 50 countries have contacted the White House to begin trade negotiations. President Trump is not trying to destroy the market by destroying the U.S. market."

Immediately following, U.S. trade advisor Navarro spoke up: Trump seeks to reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers. This guy is a major supporter of Trump's tariff policy and has recently been fiercely criticizing Musk's free trade stance.

So, will there be unexpected situations during this process?

It is possible.

For example, negotiations with the most important trade players do not go smoothly, especially with the EU and China. Currently, both have either already implemented countermeasures or threatened to do so if negotiations fail (April 13), while Treasury Secretary Mnuchin warned on the day the "reciprocal tariffs" were announced: do not retaliate, or the U.S. will escalate.

Such situations could lead to a stalemate in negotiations or even a short-term escalation of conflict (further mutual tariff increases), but considering that most other countries will actively negotiate with the U.S., the likelihood of an overall situation being worse than it is now is not high.

After all, Trump's core task remains to win more "political achievements" before next year's midterm elections, rather than allowing high inflation and a crashing stock market to ruin his remaining term.

Therefore, negotiating sooner rather than later would be more beneficial for Trump.

As a creator of "uncertainty," Trump also does not want to face "uncertainty" before next year's midterm elections.

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