Market Background: The Shockwave of Black Monday, Trump's Tariffs Shake Global Assets
On April 7, 2025, global financial markets experienced a "Black Monday"-style crash. The trigger came from the Trump administration's surprise announcement of "restarting the tariff war" measures. The market immediately fell into risk-averse mode:
- U.S. stock futures triggered a circuit breaker: Nasdaq futures fell as much as 4.6%, Dow futures dropped over 3.4%, and S&P 500 futures plummeted 3.8%.
- Japanese stock futures triggered a circuit breaker: Nikkei 225 and TOPIX futures halted trading, causing a significant loss of confidence in Asian markets.
- Gold experienced a sharp correction: Spot gold fell over 2% from its high, dropping below the psychological level of $3000.
- Digital assets also struggled: Bitcoin briefly fell below $75,000, with a decline of nearly 16%, marking the largest single-day drop in nearly three months.
This sudden "policy earthquake" shook the global liquidity landscape, triggering a systemic deleveraging and on-chain liquidation wave, directly leading to a waterfall sell-off in Bitcoin.
K-Line Structure and Chip Game Analysis: Technical Rebound, Still a Repair in a Downward Trend
Price Behavior Structure: Yesterday, the BTC/USDT price plummeted from a previous high of $88,500, reaching a low of $74,508, forming a "hammer" pattern with a long lower shadow, indicating an initial intention to stop the decline. Today (April 8), it opened and slightly rebounded to $79,214, with a daily increase of 0.65%.
Key Chip Distribution (Right Side VPVR Indicator): The main trading volume concentration is in the $82,000–$83,500 range, and the current price is still below this high-density area, indicating significant pressure from trapped positions. If the rebound is blocked above $82,000, it will face selling pressure, and structural pressure remains.
Capital Movement and Volume Observation:
- Yesterday, during the panic sell-off, trading volume surged, with on-chain data showing over $320 million in forced liquidation orders triggered, indicating a systemic release nature of the decline;
- Today, a "bottom-fishing rebound" pattern appeared in the morning session, with consecutive bullish candles on the 5-minute and 15-minute charts, suggesting institutional accumulation, but lacking sustained upward momentum, with a short-term capital style.
Technical Indicators Multi-Dimensional Analysis: Rebound May Continue, But Mid-Term Bearish Trend Unbroken
MACD (12,26,9) Indicator: The death cross expanded yesterday, with the red histogram significantly rising, indicating the release of short-term rebound momentum, but the fast and slow lines remain below the zero axis, suggesting a mid-term bearish dominance.
RSI (6,12,24) Multi-Period Indicator: RSI(6) crossed back above 55 from the oversold zone (20), indicating short-term momentum recovery; however, RSI(12) and RSI(24) remain in the 40-45 range, with no trend divergence observed.
KDJ Indicator: The K and D values crossed upwards, and the J value quickly returned from the -20 area to above 50, forming a strong golden cross structure, indicating potential continuation of short-term momentum.
OBV Energy Indicator: OBV significantly fell below the 30-day moving average yesterday but showed a slight rebound, still far from repairing the downtrend. This indicates that the current rebound's trading volume support is limited and insufficient to overturn the trend.
Macroeconomic and Cross-Asset Perspective: Bitcoin Partially Takes on the Role of "Digital Safe-Haven Asset," but Still Struggles to Shed Risk Asset Attributes
Although Bitcoin has a long-term logical basis as an "anti-inflation" and "non-sovereign currency," its performance in this round of decline shows it remains highly correlated with global risk asset performance. The simultaneous plunge of gold and Bitcoin also indicates that this market sell-off leans more towards a "systemic deleveraging" nature rather than a shift in risk appetite.
Trump's tariff policy not only impacted supply chains and economic growth expectations but also reversed expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with initial signs of tightening dollar liquidity emerging, which poses a negative outlook for high-beta assets represented by crypto assets.
Trend Prediction and Strategy Suggestions
Short-Term Trend Prediction (1-3 Days): If the price stabilizes above $78,000, it may challenge the resistance zone of $80,500–$82,000; however, if it falls below $78,000 again, it will open a downward channel to test support at $76,000 or even $74,500.
Mid-Term Trend Judgment (1-2 Weeks): The rebound is more likely a technical repair after the crash; unless global market confidence recovers and new capital enters, BTC still faces mid-term correction risks in the $70,000–$72,000 range.
Strategy Suggestions: Prioritize risk control, avoid emotional bottom-fishing operations.
- Those with medium-term short positions or light positions can wait for the price to break above $82,000 and stabilize with volume before planning their layout.
- Aggressive traders can attempt T+0 trading in the $78,500–$80,500 range, with strict stop-loss settings below $77,000.
Conclusion: Under Policy Disturbances, Safe-Haven Does Not Equal Immunity, When Will Bitcoin Return to Strength?
The long-term narrative for Bitcoin remains unchanged, but it is currently constrained by macro risks and market sentiment. The resumption of the trade war by Trump's policies has made "political risk premium" once again a key term in global markets. In this context, although Bitcoin is viewed as "digital gold," its volatility and risk sensitivity still prevent it from standing alone.
The current rebound resembles the "calm in the eye of the storm"; whether it can reverse the trend still requires resonance from global market sentiment and verification from institutional incremental capital.
This article only represents the author's personal views and does not reflect the stance and views of this platform. This article is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice to anyone.
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