The homework on Monday clearly increased in difficulty. The last incident was during BlackRock's application for a spot ETF, but the results of these two events are quite similar. Although the last one was revealed to be false information, the price of $BTC did not experience a significant drop; instead, it remained stable at a high level. This time, although it was also a false alarm, both Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market maintained a good position, indicating that investors currently expect a possible reversal of tariffs.

Additionally, the two previous false alarm incidents tell us that although market liquidity is poor, investors still have money on hand. In just 15 minutes, the total trading volume of the U.S. stock market surged to nearly $2 trillion, showing that a large amount of waiting capital is looking for suitable entry points. Although there are no clear statistics on funds in the cryptocurrency sector, BTC also surged over $4,000 in a short time, representing that investors have money, as they are eager to enter at the right time.

This also tells us that as long as macroeconomic or tariff policies ease, the buying power in the market remains strong.

Regarding tariffs themselves, we can see that Trump's pressure on the market has already caused risk markets to "go off course." This afternoon, the VIX broke 60, indicating that the market's expectation of volatility over the next 30 days has reached a pandemic-level panic. The last time it was this high was in August 2024 at 65.73, and before that, it was during the economic recession in March 2020, when it reached 85. We have previously mentioned that if the VIX is above 50, it can basically be determined that the U.S. stock market has entered a bear market. What’s more troublesome is that tariffs are just a "small matter"; after tariffs, there is also the GDP data at the end of the month.

Today, including BlackRock's CEO, many believe that the probability of the U.S. entering or already being in a recession is quite high. The GDP data will solidify the economic results; if it really is -2.8, it wouldn't be difficult for the market to drop another 20%. Therefore, April is quite challenging; the difficulty lies not in a one-sided market but in the numerous uncertainties driven by events.

Looking back at Bitcoin's own data, there was indeed panic today. The panic began with the Asian events and continued until just before the A-shares closed, with market sentiment not being very good. The turnover rate was about 0.5 times the normal level. However, from the turnover data, it can be seen that short-term investors are still the main source of turnover, and those who panicked were mostly investors who had been bottom-fishing in the last two days.

In contrast, earlier investors did not react much, which aligns with our daytime analysis. Although the price of $BTC fell, it did not trigger a significant trading volume; most holders still maintained a wait-and-see attitude, even those who were earlier at a loss.

Even from the data, the number of investors exiting between $93,000 and $98,000 is less than 10,000 BTC, while those attempting to build a bottom between $82,000 and $83,000 are the ones exiting the most. This conclusion also indicates that it is currently very difficult to make earlier holders give up their chips at low prices.

As of now, although it was a false alarm, the U.S. stock market has begun to rise comprehensively, and market sentiment should gradually recover, of course, provided that it is only about tariffs and not about recession.

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