Global trade volume is 33 trillion, of which the total imports of the United States are about 4 trillion, and the U.S. trade deficit is about 0.9 trillion.

If the United States achieves its goals, it means that the 0.9 trillion trade deficit will be eliminated, which accounts for about 3% of global trade.

The global economy is 109 trillion, and this 0.9 trillion accounts for less than 1%.

In other words, if only the U.S. decouples from the world, the largest impact on the global economy would be a reduction in trade volume by 1 trillion, which will be offset by the natural growth of world trade (an increase of 2.5 trillion from 2023 to 2024), and the impact on GDP would be about 0.8%, which is also likely to be offset by natural growth.

The above assumption is that there are no changes among other countries besides the United States.

However, another scenario is that the United States pulls other countries into a trade war, in which case the decline in trade may exceed what natural growth can offset, leading to a global recession.

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