Source: Cointelegraph Original: "{title}"

Between October 25, 2024, and January 16, 2025, Ripple (XRP) experienced one of the strongest rebounds in the current bull market, with an increase of 600%. Investors flocked in, hoping that a pro-cryptocurrency presidential administration would benefit Ripple and its cryptocurrency.

During this period, the average number of daily active addresses for XRP increased by 490%, and the price of XRP reached a new high in seven years.

XRP's 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Fast forward to now, data shows that speculative interest around Ripple is declining. Holders are increasingly facing losses rather than gains, which is suppressing their risk appetite.

"Retail confidence in Ripple may be waning."

Since bottoming out in 2022, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ripple have risen by 500% to 600%, but most of XRP's gains came from a parabolic price increase. Glassnode data shows that the daily active addresses for Ripple grew by 490%, while Bitcoin's daily active addresses increased by 10% over the past four months.

New investors in XRP have reached the limit of investment returns. Source: Glassnode

This retail-driven surge has seen Ripple's realized market cap jump from $30.1 billion to $64.2 billion, with $30 billion coming from investors in the past six months. The proportion of Ripple held by new investors (holding for less than six months) surged from 23% to 62.8%, indicating a rapid transfer of wealth. However, since the end of February 2025, capital inflows have significantly decreased.

Ripple's realized profit/loss ratio. Source: Glassnode

The main reason is that current investors have locked in fewer profits while facing larger losses. This can be identified through the realized loss/profit ratio, which has been declining since 2025.

Glassnode analysts state, "Considering the retail-driven capital inflows and the concentration of wealth among relatively new investors, this suggests that retail confidence in Ripple may be waning, a trend that could extend to the broader market."

In addition to the weakening confidence of new investors, the distribution of Ripple among whale addresses also reflects a similar trend. Data shows that since the beginning of 2025, whale outflows have been steadily increasing, indicating that large holders have been continuously reducing their positions. In the past 14 days, over $1 billion worth of Ripple positions were sold at an average price of $2.10.

Whale fund flow 30-day moving average. Source: CryptoQuant

Can Ripple hold the $2 support level?

In recent weeks, Ripple has repeatedly found support at $2, but with each retest, the likelihood of this altcoin breaking below this level is increasing.

Ripple's 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

However, bullish divergence can be observed on the lower time frames (LTF) of the 1-hour and 4-hour charts. Bullish divergence occurs when the price forms lower lows while the relative strength index (RSI) forms higher lows.

With fair value between $2.08 and $2.13, Ripple may see a rebound within this range, especially if the broader crypto market experiences an oversold bounce. On higher time frame charts, Ripple appears bearish as an inverse head and shoulders pattern has formed, targeting around $1.07.

Ripple has the potential to find support in the $1.70 to $1.80 range near the 200-day moving average (orange line), but since November 5, 2024, Ripple's price has not tested this level.

Ripple's 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading operation involves risks, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.

Related: How much can XRP transfer daily?

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