This Friday, Beijing time, will be the monthly non-farm payroll data release. Labor data remains one of the key focuses for the Federal Reserve, with the unemployment rate being the most impactful among the non-farm data. The previous value was 4.1%, and the market expectation is also 4.1%.

In fact, the unemployment rate data has returned to a situation where any data is considered bad data. If the unemployment rate continues to decline, it will lower the expectations for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, as a declining unemployment rate indicates a strong U.S. economy. Moreover, a decrease in the unemployment rate can alleviate market anxiety about an economic recession.

Conversely, if the unemployment rate rises, especially if the increase is significant, it may indeed raise the probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. However, a higher unemployment rate indicates a greater likelihood of economic issues, so even if there is a rate cut, it would be perceived as a sign of an impending recession.

Therefore, the ideal scenario would be for the data to remain unchanged or to increase slightly, such as rising to 4.2%. This would send some signals to the Federal Reserve without causing panic among users, as a 4.2% unemployment rate is still relatively low.

Following the unemployment rate, we have employment data, which is better when higher, indicating a favorable job market environment and a healthy economy. Finally, there is wage data; if this is high, it could hinder the reduction of inflation, while if it is low, there are concerns about potential economic problems.

Thus, the challenges for April are indeed increasing.

This post is sponsored by @ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With ApeX

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