Source: Cointelegraph Original: "{title}"
Bitcoin (BTC) may only be saved after liquidity in the U.S. improves, as trade tariffs have significantly impacted recent efforts to restart the BTC price bull market.
Market News
Bitcoin (BTC) is facing conditions similar to the bottom of the 2022 bear market, as U.S. businesses perceive a "very high risk" for the future.
In his latest analysis, Charles Edwards, founder of the quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, questioned when the U.S. would start printing money.
Following President Donald Trump's announcement of global reciprocal trade tariffs on Saturday (April 2), Bitcoin's reaction in the U.S. stock market was notably poor.
BTC/USD fell by as much as 8.5% that day, while the S&P 500 index rose by 0.7% by the end of the Wall Street trading session.
Nevertheless, Edwards pointed out that the expectations of U.S. businesses reflect a type of uncertainty that has only occurred three times since the turn of the millennium.
"Given that tariffs are higher than expected. The Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey shows that today's expectations are comparable to those in 2000, 2008, and 2022," he told his followers on X.
An attached image shows that the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey (BOS) has fallen below 15 for the first time since early 2024. The end of 2022 marked the recent low of the cryptocurrency bear market, when BTC/USD reversed at $15,600.
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey compared to the S&P 500 index. Source: Charles Edwards/X
In Capriole's latest market update on Saturday (March 30), Edwards acknowledged that BOS data might produce unreliable market sentiment signals but should not be ignored.
"While future outlooks cannot be guaranteed (this indicator does have false signals), this is a data reading we have in very high-risk areas (2000, 2008, and 2022) that tells us to keep an open mind," he wrote.
"Especially if the tariff war significantly escalates beyond current expectations or corporate profits begin to decline."
For Bitcoin, a key level to watch after the tariffs is $91,000, as Capriole suggests that U.S. macroeconomic measures will "determine the ultimate technical trend starting from here."
"All else being equal, a daily close above $91,000 would be a strong bullish signal," the update explained, accompanied by a weekly BTC/USD chart.
"Otherwise, a significant rebound may occur if it falls into the $71,000 range."
BTC/USD 1-Day Chart (Screenshot). Source: Capriole Investments
As Cointelegraph reported, a highlight for cryptocurrencies and risk assets may be the increase in global liquidity.
Related: Bitcoin sales at $109,000 hit a historic high "significantly below" the cycle peak — Glassnode
In the U.S., the Federal Reserve has begun to ease its tightening monetary policy, with varying bets on the return of so-called quantitative easing (QE).
"When will Powell's money printer start humming?" Edwards questioned.
Meanwhile, the M2 money supply is set to experience a "surge" — historically, this has triggered major BTC price increases.
"The most important takeaway is that a large M2 surge is imminent. The exact date is less important," renowned analyst Colin Talks Crypto predicted in this week's topic on X.
An accompanying comparison chart suggests a potential BTC price rebound by early May.
U.S. M2 Money Supply vs. BTC/USD Chart. Source: Colin Talks Crypto/X
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
