Wall Street oracle Tom Lee's prediction on Trump's tariffs on April 2nd suggests that the market is brewing a V-shaped reversal, with greater opportunities ahead after the crisis! 🧐
1️⃣ The liquidity dam is about to burst, with $857 billion in off-market funds: The scale of money market funds has surged year-on-year, equivalent to 2.3% of the total market capitalization of the S&P 500. Historical reference: In March 2020, at the pandemic bottom, the size of similar funds was comparable to the current level, and the S&P skyrocketed by 68% in the following six months.
2️⃣ Panic indicators reveal irrational sell-offs. Short positions have reached a 20-year high: The current long-short ratio has fallen below the levels seen during the 2020 circuit breaker period. Volatility mismatch: The difference between the VIX index and the actual volatility of the S&P has reached 7 standard deviations, indicating excessive market hedging.
3️⃣ Countdown to policy fog, with the tariff list landing on April 2nd: The uncertainty premium (about 350 points) will be released all at once, with historical scripts repeating: The most panicked moment of the 2018 trade war was precisely the launch pad for the Nasdaq's decade-long bull market.
4️⃣ Data-driven historical revelations: A golden window after a 10% sharp decline.
The pattern of retaliatory rebounds after the fastest 10% pullback in history:
Average increase after 1 month +2.9%
After 3 months +8.2%
After 6 months +15.0%
After 12 months +19.8%
The current adjustment speed ranks third in history:
Black Monday 1987 (14 days)
COVID-19 crisis 2020 (13 days)
Trade war clouds 2025 (current)
Note: The probability of positive returns 12 months after each sharp decline is 100%.
Tom Lee concludes: The market's memory lasts only 7 seconds, but the muscle memory of capital spans a century.
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