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The first quarter has ended, and most friends were actually hoping that Chuanzi could create a big news story to boost altcoins, but let's not get into that. Today is April Fool's Day, which is also the first day of the second quarter. Gold prices are still rising, and Bitcoin is holding up relatively well, as Master has always been optimistic about Bitcoin.

However, apart from Bitcoin, Master is really reluctant to touch other cryptocurrencies right now. The reason is that the shadow of American recession is still looming. The Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, and Chuanzi's tariff policies change faster than flipping a book.

So, Master’s plan for the second quarter is to not engage in spot trading at all. Of course, if Bitcoin experiences a massive spike of over ten thousand points, I might still consider entering early. But we must respect the market and believe in cycles; in short, we should go with the flow!

Currently, Bitcoin's issue is not that its market cap is too small, but rather that its liquidity is poor. When those long-term holding whales start accumulating, the emotions of us short-term players can cause the price to fluctuate wildly. So right now, the market relies entirely on events to drive it.

Although the U.S. stock market and Bitcoin are different, the general direction is quite similar. The key is whether these events can invigorate liquidity; if they can, a reversal might occur; if not, it will just be a rebound, a fleeting moment.

Additionally, last night the Nasdaq opened sharply down, but MSTR opened low and then rose. This is because it made a big announcement on X, stating that it recently purchased over 20,000 Bitcoins.

Once this news broke, the market started to get excited, and Bitcoin rebounded during U.S. trading hours. So don’t think that Bitcoin didn’t drop with the U.S. stocks last night; it was actually following MSTR's stock price.

In the early hours, Bitcoin dropped from 83,850 to around 82,300 this morning. Why? It’s simple: MSTR closed down 0.39% on Monday. A drop is a drop, and the direction is set. There was a rebound in the first half of the night, but by the second half of the night and into the morning, it retraced.

So why did it stabilize at 82,300? Because MSTR didn’t drop much, just 0.39%. The support point for BTC below 83,000 is around 82,400, so when it retraced to this area in the morning, it held firm.

If MSTR had dropped more than 3%, it would likely have broken below 82,000 during the day. Since it didn’t drop much, it won’t fall too much during the day either. The drop in the second half of the night was substantial enough, so it probably won’t set new lows today.

As for what will happen tonight? First, we need to prepare for both sides regarding the news; no one dares to only look one way. This morning, Bitcoin has already reached the 0.618 retracement level. Last night’s rebound looked quite strong, with a high of just 83,850.

So no matter how it swings, you won’t get trapped if you sell high. But if you get itchy and chase after the rebound, that could be risky. A quick spike followed by a quick retracement can easily leave you stuck near the highs.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

First Resistance Level: 84,000

Second Resistance Level: 83,500

Support Levels Reference:

First Support Level: 82,200

Second Support Level: 81,500

Today's Suggestions:

At the current time, it has temporarily stabilized in the 82,000 to 82,200 range, so we can expect a short-term rebound today and test the first resistance level. If there is an adjustment at the first resistance of 83,500 during the rebound, we need to pay attention to whether the adjustment is reasonable and be wary of a large bearish candle.

The current important range is 82,000 to 82,200. If it breaks below this range again, it may lead to disappointed selling and accelerate the decline, so it is recommended to set this as an important focus range.

If the first support is broken and a lower shadow appears, do not consider it a short-term bottom and chase after it. Currently, if it holds above 82,000, we can maintain a rebound view along the short-term upward trend line.

If the rebound is successful, we can consider adjusting positions in the first resistance range. After establishing a short position, we need to pay attention to the candlestick patterns along the upward trend line to re-enter for rebound opportunities.

4.1 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Not currently applicable

Short Entry Reference: Light short in the 84,000-84,500 range; Target: 82,200-81,500

This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (WeChat public account: Coin God Master Chen). Master Chen is the same name across the internet. For more real-time investment strategies, solutions, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading techniques, operational skills, and knowledge about candlesticks, you can join Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans has been opened, along with community live broadcasts and other quality experience projects!

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