The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit to go! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui talking about coins, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to the vast number of coin friends. Welcome everyone's attention and likes, and reject any market smoke bombs!

Recently, the quality of articles has indeed encountered significant issues, causing some troubles, which also stem from Lao Cui himself; coinciding with spring fatigue, coupled with the recent operations of the company, along with the increasing number of new users, there has been some fatigue. I hope everyone can be forgiving. I have collected some thoughts from new users and found that most users hope Lao Cui can talk about position layout and entry points. In future articles, Lao Cui will also try to start from this aspect. Let me directly talk about Lao Cui's position layout. This wave started from 76,000 and grew to 88,752, with profits basically all lost. After all, Lao Cui has always been a conservative, and it is absolutely impossible to intervene in long positions when bearish. Only spot users have laid out positions at the lows. Currently, I basically have all short positions in the market, with layout positions around 84,000-87,000, generating some profits while also strengthening the spot. This layout method is also very easy to understand; most users are mainly spot-focused. During the upward trend, there is no need to worry too much, and contracts do not need to intervene in spot profits. Only during the downward trend will contract management be activated to compensate for spot losses. The ratio is almost one to one. Many friends have significant misunderstandings about contracts; after getting involved, they think every fluctuation should make them profit, which is completely unrealistic.

If you are mainly focused on contracts, then what you need to do is two types of strategies. One is to operate under a light leverage state, treating it as a spot form. The timeline is extended, starting from at least six months. This profit model will bring considerable income to everyone. If you adopt this form, then short-term fluctuations will almost have nothing to do with you. You cannot be concerned about the gains and losses of a single city or pool; this is also the approach of quarterly contracts. The other is to use high leverage to seek short-term profits. This risk-controlled category must ensure entry and exit within one day. This contract model cannot hold positions overnight; regardless of profit or loss, it must ensure that you can exit. Especially for many users, when facing market reversals, they either think about bottom fishing or feel that the opportunity for high shorts is coming. They never think about how to protect their principal. Short-term fluctuations, such as significant increases and decreases, are basically not profits that you can control. The greater the market volatility, the more you need to learn to watch from the sidelines. A stable market is the key to your profits. Large positions in short-term battles can only be survived in stability. Many users have tasted sweetness once and later hope for profits in Bitcoin to be above 5,000 points. The profit range for heavy positions that Lao Cui often uses is maintained within 1,000-2,000 points. Even if there is a 90% certainty of remaining profits, I will not attempt to enter again.

The most significant news yesterday came from the domestic capital return, whether it is the fundraising strategies of the four major banks or the tightening of core assets. Or the gathering of domestic funds to cope with the financial issues in the U.S., including the upcoming tariff impacts. The accumulation of various factors seems to indicate that something significant will happen, especially the performance of gold, which is terrifying. Not only has gold reached an all-time high, but its volume has also reached an unprecedented level. The previously estimated high point of gold at 3,100 at the beginning of the year no longer exists, and predictions from various institutions have all come to 3,300-3,500. This performance acknowledges the low position of gold while denying the dominance of the dollar. Currently, the trend in the cryptocurrency market is precisely the same as that of the U.S. stock market. Many friends are puzzled as to why the cryptocurrency market is linked with the U.S. stock market recently. It is not difficult to understand that the main capital in the cryptocurrency market at this stage mainly comes from traditional finance in the U.S. stock market. BlackRock has become a leader in the cryptocurrency market, while Grayscale has become a thing of the past. The involvement of traditional capital in the cryptocurrency market has its drawbacks, as Lao Cui has mentioned before. When facing a stock market crash, the withdrawal of funds from the cryptocurrency market will definitely be the first choice. This type of investment, from their perspective, is done with a speculative mindset. Everyone should not hope that they can save the cryptocurrency market. When their own enterprises suffer a collapse, the withdrawal of funds from the cryptocurrency market will come. This is also why, since the new high began, when the U.S. stock market falls, the cryptocurrency market will also be linked. Considering the domestic trends, once the U.S. stock market really has problems, the cryptocurrency market will probably not escape disaster, so be prepared for even lower new lows.

This section will provide a simple prediction for the cryptocurrency market. If the current financial environment continues, not only the cryptocurrency market but also emerging tech stocks may see new lows, unless there is a technical breakthrough. However, it seems that the AI sector still has limited development potential. It can either improve computing power or optimize algorithms. Even if the overall AI improves tenfold, it is still based on big data algorithms, making it difficult to break through limits. If this situation continues, it would be a positive sign for the cryptocurrency market, as the number of Bitcoins yet to be mined is limited. However, small coins, especially those that have not been mined on a large scale, may face a fatal blow, and all small coins still have the possibility of being halved. Therefore, everyone’s investment focus should try to avoid small coins, including Ethereum and the SOL system. Heavy positions do not seem to be an effective way at present; light positions should aim to pull the average price down to around 1,500 or even below, while the average price of SOL may even drop below 100. If the continuous decline of the U.S. stock market continues, it will definitely lead to a collapse in the cryptocurrency market. The main capital still comes from Europe and the U.S., and under the premise of self-preservation, aside from Bitcoin, all other coins will experience a new round of sharp declines. As for Bitcoin's new low, it should be placed at the peak of the last bull market or even a downward space of 10,000 points. For spot trading, preparations for bottom fishing can be made with light positions.

Lao Cui's summary: Many friends do not accurately predict the emergence of USD1. Lao Cui will explain again that the worst-case scenario is to replace USDT, but at the same time, this situation is exactly what Trump wants. However, the final evolution, Lao Cui estimates, will be similar to the competition between Binance and Coinbase, using public funds to support USDT's competitors while using private funds to settle in USDT. The two do not conflict with each other. The purpose of supporting USD1 is merely to lower the entry cost of USDT, that’s all. The issue that USDT cannot let Trump accept is that its registered capital is in Hong Kong, which involves other fields. Lao Cui will not elaborate further. Considering various factors, USDT will definitely be under close observation, and we investors should try to seek benefits and avoid harm, mainly replacing it with other coins. When cashing out, we should adopt convenient methods to minimize our risks. In the competition between the two, the party that suffers the most is the acquirer. In the future, U may directly align with the dollar exchange rate, and there will no longer be a price difference. Once this problem arises, a price difference of 0.1U will evaporate a certain market value in the cryptocurrency market. In the short term, the bearish risk is more severe, while in the long term, more funds will find it easier to enter the cryptocurrency market, which remains a positive sign. The key issue is this year's interest rate cuts; rate cuts are the last chips for bullish sentiment. The signs in the U.S. stock market, as Lao Cui predicted last year, may see two rate cuts as the minimum standard. If not controlled well, this year may repeat last year's rate cut magnitude. As the competition between USDT and USD1 once again leads to excessive currency issuance, the cryptocurrency market bubble will once again surge. The essence of the bubble will eventually be pierced one day. If there is another crazy surge this year, then 2026-2027 will welcome an unprecedented bear market in the cryptocurrency market. At this stage, stabilizing coin prices is already a full effort. In the short term, everyone should try to short, and remember that long positions must be handled on the same day. At the beginning of April, Lao Cui will focus on laying out contracts and spot trading. Article updates may be slower. If anyone has questions, they can directly ask Lao Cui. At the same time, I remind everyone that although we are in a downward phase, Bitcoin currently has the ability to organize a counterattack of 5,000-8,000 points. Do not blindly short; when entering, at least have such a high stop-loss space. This rebound is meant to clean out your short positions, and you must respect the market.

Original creation by WeChat Official Account: Lao Cui Talks About Coins. For assistance, please contact directly.

Lao Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess; a master can see five, seven, or even ten steps ahead, while a novice can only see two or three steps. The master considers the overall situation, strategizes for the big picture, and does not focus on individual pieces or territories, aiming for the ultimate victory. The novice, however, fights for every inch of land, frequently switching between long and short positions, only competing for short-term gains, resulting in frequent troubles.

This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this is at your own risk!

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