Original | Odaily Planet Daily

Author | Nan Zhi

Since February, Binance has launched five rounds of Exclusive TGE through Pancake, characterized by short duration and high single-account returns. Additionally, multiple BNB Holder airdrops and Launchpools have been introduced, providing Binance users with a substantial amount of "pork trotter rice."

However, due to the outstanding returns from Exclusive TGE, many users have begun an arms race to increase their accounts, with the amount of BNB invested and the oversubscription rate rising sharply. Therefore, this article aims to review the data from the past several rounds of Exclusive TGE and Launchpool to infer reasonable prices and participation strategies.

Exclusive TGE

Return Situation

The past five projects were MyShell, Bubblemaps, Bedrock, Particle Network, and KiloEx, with the least amount of BNB invested in the first round, MyShell, totaling 145,106 BNB, and the most in the latest round, KiloEx, totaling 442,985 BNB, representing a growth rate of 205%.

The single-account return situation for each round is shown in the figure below:

Currently, the minimum guaranteed return per account is still around 50 USDT, with a return rate of 2.6% on the principal of 3 BNB. Even considering the loss of BNB in the IDO circulation, it is still very worthwhile to participate.

The amount of BNB raised continues to rise. Here, we refer to a key data point—the amount of BNB invested in Binance's main site Launchpool, which has averaged 17.87 million BNB over the past 16 months. It is evident that the amount of BNB is not an issue; the variable lies in the number of real-name accounts. However, since Binance has announced that the number of users has exceeded 200 million, it is impossible to estimate the upper limit of participating accounts.

Therefore, assuming the ultimate investment amount is 10% of the Launchpool, with a token circulating market value of 50 million USD, and allocating 20% to Exclusive TGE, the final theoretical return per account would be 3 ÷ 1,787,000 × 50,000,000 × 20% = 16.8 USDT.

Is it feasible to short BNB after news releases?

In the second part of the above figure, we have compiled the decline in BNB from the start to the end of the IDO. From past data, BNB has consistently declined during this interval, and typically, after the announcement of Exclusive TGE news, the price of BNB is often higher than at the start of the TGE. Therefore, the current shorting strategy has a certain and clear profit margin.

Launchpool Return Estimation

The data from the past 27 rounds of Launchpool is shown in the figure below, clearly indicating a significant downward trend in the return rate. The average annualized return rate for the 27 rounds is 88%. Based on this return rate, the price of GUN would be 0.26 USDT. However, considering the poor performance in the previous rounds, it is advisable to conservatively estimate, and at half the return rate, the reasonable price would be 0.13 USDT.

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